Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999

PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH TEMPS DURING THE PD WITH A SECONDARY ON
POPS.

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM KS/NEB MCS INTO N CNTRL KS.
CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG WITH N END PUSHING INTO NW MO.  WARM
FRONT ACROSS SE KS/E OK...HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NE OK/SW MO/SE KS ATTM.  CLOUD COVER FROM NEB/KS MCS SHOULD AFFECT
THE CWA TDA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  STILL WITH GOOD WAA AND WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD REACH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...IN OTHER WORDS THE
FAN NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO LOW TDA.  WILL WORD ZONES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
TODAY.  WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SW PTN OF CWA SHOULD SWING TO THE N
TDA...AND DESPITE A WARM CAPPING LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS DONT WANT TO
TOTALLY ELIMINATE POPS FROM ZONES TDA.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO SHOULD TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE ACROSS THE N
PLAINS WITH CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS W/CNTRL NEBRASKA AND DEVELOP
INTO ANOTHER NIGHTTIME MCS...PUSHING INTO NE KS/NW MO/S IA AGAIN.
WILL KEEP 30 POPS ACROSS MY N CWA FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
ELSEWHERE.  WILL PUT 30 POPS IN ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH CAP LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STRONG.  NGM 42 HR PRECIP LOOKS WAY OVERDONE THOUGH.  HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE AVN/ETA FOR GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PD.

CAP WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY EXTENDED PD AS MID LVL
SHRTWV BEGINS TO LIFT NE.  SFC FRONT SHOULD ALSO MAKE AN EASTWARD
PUSH AND SHOULD SEE HIGHER POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT.

CCF
SGF EB 080/062 082/064 078 05313
JLN EB 085/066 085/067 078 05313
UNO EB 080/064 083/065 082 05313
VIH EB 077/061 082/062 079 05333

LINDENBERG