Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

FCST CONCERNS: SEVERE TSTM/HEAVY RAIN THREAT TNGT

RUNNING VERY BEHIND THIS AFTN WITH SVR WX...SO THIS WL BE BRIEF.

ONGOING STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACRS MUCH OF THE FA
TNGT AS UPR LVL JET MAX...AND SHRT WV PASSES THRU THE REGION. WITH
HVY RAINS EARLIER TODAY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL EXISTS. WL CONT
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT.

APPEARS THAT ETA MODEL INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MRNG AT 12Z...WITH
AVN A CLOSE SECOND. WL FOLLOW ALONG WITH THESE MODELS FOR THIS FCST.

SFC LOW OVR CNTRL KS IS FCST TO LIFT SLOLY NEWD OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS.
CDFNT/DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FM THE LOW IS FCST TO ENTER WRN PART OF
THE FA TNGT...MOVE INTO CNTRL AREAS BY WED MRNG AND THEN INTO SERN
MO BY WED AFTN. ASSOCD UPR SYS IS FCST TO CLOSE OFF TO THE NORTH OF
MO DURG THE FCST PD. SEVERAL SHRT WVS WL CONT TO ROTATE ARND THE UPR
SYS...KEEPING CHCS OF RAIN IN THE FCST.

GOOD DRY PUNCH FCST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TNGT AND EARLY ON
WED. THIS SHLD BRING A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY WED MRNG.

COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND AFTN HEATING WL LEAD TO STEEP
LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SCTD SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTN...
ESPECIALLY NRN COUNTIES. DECENT LOW LVL CAA NOTED BY WED NGT AND
THU...WL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS LATER PDS.

LTL TIME TO COMPARE TEMPS...SO WL USE A BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS.

STL...WL TRY AND SEND WORK ZNS BY 330 PM.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION STL...ICT AND LIT.

CCF (FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY):

SGF EE 054/069 045/062 045 098333
JLN EE 053/068 046/061 046 096333
UNO TE 056/073 048/063 046 099533
VIH TE 057/071 044/058 043 099534

RICKARD

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-091>092-095>098-104>106-050300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

IN MISSOURI:

CAMDEN         CHRISTIAN      DALLAS        DENT
DOUGLAS        HOWELL         LACLEDE       MARIES
MILLER         MORGAN         OREGON        OZARK
PHELPS         PULASKI        SHANNON       TANEY
TEXAS          WEBSTER        WRIGHT

INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF...ROLLA...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...WEST
PLAINS...SALEM...MARSHFIELD AND OZARK...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  WHILE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXISTS.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  TAKE TIME NOW TO THINK ABOUT
WHAT YOU WOULD DO TO PROTECT YOURSELF IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.  REMEMBER...ELECTRICAL POWER AND OTHER SERVICES MAY BE
INTERRUPTED DURING SEVERE STORMS.

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 AM    JOPLIN                    MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   JASPER                          TELEPHONE POLE BLOWN OVER

0149 PM    TIFFIN                    MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   ST.CLAIR                        MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER

0200 PM    OSCEOLA                   MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   ST.CLAIR                        TREES BLOWN DOWN

0415 PM    HIGHLANDVILLE             MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   CHRISTIAN                       TREES AND LIMBS DOWN

0415 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/04/99   GREENE

0415 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   GREENE                          SIGN AND PORTION OF
                                           FURNITURE STORE DAMAGED

0420 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   GREENE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                           BLOWN DOWN

0455 PM    BENNETT SPGS              MO    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   LACLEDE

0510 PM    4 E ELDRIDGE              MO    .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/99   LACLEDE

0520 PM    2 S LEBANON               MO    WIND DAMAGE
05/04/99   LACLEDE                         POLE BARN DAMAGED.
                                           TREES AND POWER LINES
                                           DOWN

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-091>092-095>098-104>106-050130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

DENT...                 HOWELL...                MARIES...
OREGON...               PHELPS...                SHANNON...
TEXAS...

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

CAMDEN...               CHRISTIAN...             DALLAS...
DOUGLAS...              LACLEDE...               MILLER...
MORGAN...               OZARK...                 PULASKI...
TANEY...                WEBSTER...               WRIGHT...

AT 725 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR IN SPRINGFIELD INDICATED AN AREA OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
VIENNA TO WEST PLAINS LINE. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35
MPH. SOME OF THE STORMS STILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAD ENDED...AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF A TUSCUMBIA...
TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

RICKARD