Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
211 PM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

MAIN FOCUS INITIALLY WILL BE WITH SHRA/TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO TEMPS REMAINDER OF PD.

LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BNDRY FROM
CNTRL OK INTO S CNTRL MO.  S OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
EXISTS WITH SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  DRY LINE EXTENDS S
FROM A LOW IN W OK...INTO W TX.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LVL SHRTWV
ACROSS E NM IN PROGRESSIVE MOSTLY W TO E FLOW.

MODEL COMPARISON SHOWS MINOR TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV WITH MODELS TRENDING TO A FASTER SOLUTION WHEN
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUN.  AVN HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO USE AS GUIDANCE.

SFC LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SW MO THIS EVENING AND WILL SEE BEST
LIFT ACROSS CWA FROM 00Z AND 08Z TONIGHT.  AVN FCST LIS DURING THIS
TIME PD WILL BE FROM 0 TO 2 ACROSS S MO.  NOSE OF 850 LLJ (35 TO 45
KTS) WILL PUSH INTO S CNTRL/SE MO THIS EVENING AND WILL LEND TO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THERE.  TSRA HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN THIS AREA
FROM LATE MORNING TO CURRENT AND WITH LOW FFG VALUES IN THIS
AREA...WILL BE RECOMMENDING A FFA FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING IN THE
W ON SUNDAY.  WILL NOT MENTION POPS IN THE W FOR SUNDAY ATTM...BUT
WILL HOLD ON TO A 40 POP IN CNTRL AND S CNTRL MO DURING THE MORNING.

GOOD WARM UP IN STORE FOR MONDAY.  HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER FAN
NUMBERS...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT SLIGHTLY.

STL/PAH...THANKS FOR COORDINATION CALLS.  STL...WILL BE SENDING
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ZONES IN AN ADM SHORTLY.

CCF
SGF EB 044/052 041/067 050 0592-
JLN EB 044/055 043/068 052 0591-

LINDENBERG

MOZ082-095>098-103>106-070500-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
740 PM CST SAT FEB 6 1999

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI:

CHRISTIAN          DOUGLAS          HOWELL
OREGON             OZARK            SHANNON
STONE              TANEY            TEXAS

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM GALENA...TO OZARK...TO HOUSTON TO EMINENCE.

AT 735 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR IN SPRINGFIELD CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERING SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED.
THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONE HALF INCH PER
HOUR HAVE OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL WHEN TRAVELING AS MOST FLASH
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES AT NIGHT.

RICKARD