Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 PM CDT WED APR 14 1999

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYS OF INTEREST
OVR SOUTHWEST OK MOVING EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER.  THIS UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN MO LATER
TONIGHT.

DERIVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE AVN SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 180
PERCENT OF NORMAL THIS EVENING IN THE SGF AREA.  THIS COUPLED WITH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 700 MB ON THE 300K SFC SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.  PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN OVR THE
AREA HAS SET THE TABLE FOR FLOODING LATER TONIGHT...THUS WL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS THE UPR LOW CROSSES THE AREA...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS SRN MO AND MOVE INTO SRN ILLINOIS BY
MORNING.  THIS WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.

WITH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.  AVN TIME SECTIONS MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THUS WL FORECAST CLOUDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH DOWNWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND A DEEP LYR OF NORTHWEST FLOW ARE EXPECTED.

WHILE THE FREEZING LVL LOOKS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IN
SGF...I WL INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR CENTRAL MO FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

I FAVOR THE WARMER NGM NIGHTTIME TEMPS AND COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  ALSO...I WL UNDERCUT POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SRN MO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANY PCPN WE GET SHOULD BE
LIGHT OR NON-MEASURABLE.

SGF CC 044/045 034/045 034 109131
JLN CC 045/046 034/045 035 109131

VESPER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-142300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED APR 14 1999

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA LATER TODAY.  AHEAD
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THE PAST 24 HOURS...GROUNDS HAVE BECOME SATURATED.  ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AREA RIVERS MAY
RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. THE LITTLE OSAGE...
OSAGE AT FULTON AND THE MARMATON RIVER AT FORT SCOTT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW.  OTHER RIVER SYSTEMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONG
RISES INTO THE WEEKEND.  PERSONS WITH LIVESTOCK OR PROPERTY ALONG
RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT THOSE INTERESTS
FROM RISING WATERS.

AS THE STORM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE.  SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
PITTSBURG KANSAS TO OSCEOLA MISSOURI LINE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 40S...OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT TENDER OUTDOOR
VEGETATION.

VESPER/SUTTON