Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999

*** HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING
WHEN THE NEW SET OF ZONES IS ISSUED: HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
CAUSED FLOODING TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE COUNTIES I WAS PLANNING
ON INCLUDING IN THE NEW WATCH.  WSFO SAINT LOUIS: AN UPDATED SET OF
WORK ZONES HAS BEEN ISSUED. ***

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE:
WHERE TO PLACE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING
CAN WE LEAVE POPS OUT SOMEWHERE TONIGHT/TUESDAY?
TEMPERATURES

WEATHER IS QUITE ACTIVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA: AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH UPPER 60S NORTH. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM
NEBRASKA TO SOUTH DAKOTA.

SIMILAR TO PAST NIGHTS...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN. THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES (ETA IS THE STRONGEST AND AVN
THE WEAKEST) AND IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA
OUTPUT FOR REASONS GIVEN BELOW...

FIRST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND PAY A BRIEF VISIT TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NGM AND AVN PUSH THIS BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WHICH IS PROBABLY OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE DISTANCE
FROM THE SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS.

ALSO...PREVIOUS REASONING THAT FORECAST AREA WOULD EXPERIENCE A RAIN
FREE PERIOD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS IN NEBRASKA SHOULD
ARRIVE BY DINNER TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FACTOR AGAINST A NO POP
FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SO...WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE
CONTINUED UNTIL NOON. WILL NOT SPECULATE ON THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH
HERE AS THERE MAY BE LAST MINUTE CHANGES MADE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY: CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STILL OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON ETA 2M TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

SGF TE 082/066 077/065 080 087433
JLN EE 086/068 077/065 084 084334
VIH TE 075/063 075/062 077 08+533
UNO TE 083/067 080/065 080 086433

SUTTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 PM    15 SW VERSAILLES          MO    WIND DAMAGE
06/27/99   MORGAN                          TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO
                                           RESIDENCE IN IVY BEND
                                           AREA ALONG
                                           MORGAN/CAMDEN COUNTY
                                           BORDER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 PM    15 SW VERSAILLES          MO    WIND DAMAGE
06/27/99   MORGAN                          TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO
                                           RESIDENCE IN IVY BEND
                                           AREA ALONG
                                           MORGAN/CAMDEN COUNTY
                                           BORDER.