Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1005 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 1999

CONVECTION POPPING ALREADY JUST UPSTREAM AHEAD OF UPR LEVEL
TROF...FORCING SEEN IN MESO-ETA Q CONV AND PROGGED TO STEADILY
MOVE EAST. ALSO CAP A LTL WEAKER THIS MRNG OVR ERN KY AND INTO FAR
SW VA.  LAPS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOW CAPE ALREADY RISING ABOVE
2000 OVER SW VA AND NW NC AND MODIFIED MRNG SNDGS SUGGEST CAPES FROM
OVR 2000 TO AS HIGH AS 4000 TOWARD NORTHEAST. BEST LAPSE RATES
ALSO JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OVR NR VA. RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOW LTL
CHANGE IN 500 TEMPS AS TROF APPROACHES...BUT QG FORCING ASSOC WITH
IT AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MVG IN FROM OH AND WV COULD ALSO
ENHANCE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.  WILL PROBABLY BOOST POPS TO LIKELY
OVR WRN SECTIONS OF CWA. DOWNSLOPE WILL HOLD THINGS OFF FOR A WHILE
EAST OF BLUE RDG BUT AS FLOW TURNS MORE SW LATER IN AFTERNOON AND
CAP IS BROKEN...PRBLY THE BEST CHC FOR ANY SVR TDY.  EXACT POSITION OF
LEE TROF LATE THIS AFT HARD TO DETERMINE BUT RIGHT NOW OVR FAR ERN
EDGE OF CWA AND WILL ALSO BE A FOCUSSING MECHANISM. WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN THOSE ZONES DUE TO STRONGER CAP.  STORMS WILL BE MVG EAST
BUT NOT MORE THAN 10-15 MPH...PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE SO SOME LOCALLY HVY RAIN LIKELY.

OTHER STORY REMAIN THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF BLUE RDG
WHERE MORE HOURS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105 AGAIN.  DEW PTS COULD MIX MORE JUST EAST OF
BLUE RDG...BUT FARTHER OUT IN PDMNT CRNT HEAT ADV FOR THIS AFT LOOKS
GOOD AGAIN AS TEMPS ON SIMILAR TRACK AS YDAY.  I MAY DROP THEM A FEW
DEG OVR WV ZONES DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION.

 .RNK...
VA...HEAT ADVISORY VAZ043-044-058-059
NC...HEAT ADVISORY NCZ004>006-020
WV...NONE.

KEIGHTON

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-242200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EVEN MORE UNSTABLE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST...SO THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3:00 PM AND 9:00 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT
MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.

SK

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-242200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EVEN MORE UNSTABLE...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST...SO THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3:00 PM AND 9:00 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT
MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.

SK