Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
215 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREMENT ON UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPS. WILL NOT PUT MUCH FAITH IN MODEL TIMING OF THE
WAVES...UPPER LOW ALMOST STACKED STRAIGHT UP ANYWAY AND WILL BE HARD
TO GENERATE WIDESCALE LIFT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE A DIURNAL
EVENT FOR THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW LVL MOISTR REMAINS HIGH.

WILL GO WITH 40 AND 50 POPS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE EAST ASSUMING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS ATTM
CONTS TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST. IT SHOULD GET GOING AGAIN TMRW...AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD. ACCORDING TO THE
ETA BEST VERT SHEAR AND INSTB EAST OF THE MTNS TMRW. WILL EDGE POPS
HIGHER IN THE EAST AGAIN TMRW.

TMRW NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS. WILL DROP POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT
UPSLOPE WEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTR AND NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.RNK
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JDS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-252300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...IF THEY
BECOME SEVERE...WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WNDS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SKYWARN ACTIVATION.

AMS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-252300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. A COMBINATION OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...IF THEY
BECOME SEVERE...WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WNDS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SKYWARN ACTIVATION.

AMS

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