Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 1999

UPDATED ADVISORY SECTION FOR LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS IN FLASH FLOOD
WATCH & WIND ADVISORY.

***KFCX IS IN TROPICAL Z/R***

**ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO PUT COUNTIES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN A FLOOD WATCH...MORNING ZONE PACKAGE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 330 PM**

CENTER OF DENNIS AT 06Z BETWEEN KGSB AND KPGV IN ERN NC...SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN 00Z ETA AND NGM. CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFFECTS OF DENNIS FOR SW VA MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED IN THE
CURRENT ZONES. IF THE AVN IS RIGHT...WE WILL BE FEELING THE AFFECTS
INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE ETA AND NGM ARE CLOSER TO NHC TRACK...WILL
BASE THE FCST ON THEM...BUT WITH A LITTLE SLOWER MVMNT. INITIAL RAIN
BAND HAS MOVED AS FAR WEST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY OF VA &
GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV. PIEDMONT AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH ARE
GETTING A BREAK...BUT WILL BE IN THE NEXT RAIN BAND IN A FEW HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE SHRA TRAINING WWD INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE UNABATED...AND CONCERN IS THAT THESE AREAS
WILL GET THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TODAY. BASED ON THE IDEA THAT
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER MVMNT TO THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF >3 INCHES THRU 06Z MONDAY WAS SENT OUT FOR OUR
NERN CWA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR FFG IN 3 TO 6 HOURS...WILL CHANGE THE WATCHES TO FLASH
FLOOD. FRANKLIN... BEDFORD...ROANOKE...BOTETOURT & ROCKBRIDGE COS
WILL EXTEND INTO TONITE...WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FA IN THEIR
WATCH THRU TODAY. WILL LEAVE THE VA HIGHLANDS OUT OF ANY WATCH FOR
NOW...AS THERE USUALLY IS NOT MUCH SPILLOVER IN A STRONG UPSLOPE
SITUATION...A LA FRAN.

KFCX VWP IS SHOWING 40 KTS AT 4000 FT. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN SW VA AND INTO
SE WV.

AS FOR MONDAY...NW WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE SHUD END THE PCPN FOR ALL BUT
SE WV...WHERE MOS POPS LOOK MUCH TOO LOW. WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN THE
WEST AND NE...CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
DENNIS...AND THE APPCHNG COLD FNT FROM THE WEST. VERY WARM NGM MOS
TEMPS MONDAY EAST OF THE MTNS NOT UNREASONABLE WITH DOWNSLOPE AND
>20 C TEMPS UPSTREAM AT 850 MBS... BUT AGAIN CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH DENNIS...WILL BACK OFF SOME.

.RNK
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR VAZ033-043>047-058-059.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR VAZ018>020-022>024-033-035.
WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VAZ011-013-014-016>020.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR WVZ044-045.

JJ