Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

LARGE VORT MAX EASY TO PICK OUT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR ERN
OH. 00Z ETA INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL... IN ADDITION TO THIS
MORNING'S UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE
FRONT IN FAR ERN TN WITH A TROUGH JUST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTNS
IN NC. AS BOTH OF THESE FEATURES TRANSLATE EASTWARD & DRAG THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE STATE... EXPECT CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE
WEST... A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H8 WINDS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS... UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE U.S. JET... AND THE LACK OF
A CAP IN THE MHX SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. (12Z GSO UPPER AIR WAS UNFORTUNATELY A SHORT RUN TO JUST
650 MB.) WHILE MOISTURE ISN'T TERRIBLY ABUNDANT IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES UP FOR THAT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. TOUGH CALL ON PRECISE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOCATION(S) BUT WILL KEEP CLOSEST EYE ON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON EDGE OF DEEPEST LOW CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING. OVERALL PLAN ON LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS UPDAT(E FROM GOING
FORECAST... MAINLY 50% POPS EVERYWHERE. CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED TEMP
RISE SO FAR... BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST READINGS UP A NOTCH AFTER
CHECKING OUT LATEST OBS.

.RAH...NONE.

HARTFIELD

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150300-
ALAMANCE-ANSON-CHATHAM-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-
FORSYTH-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-HALIFAX-HARNETT-HOKE-JOHNSTON-
LEE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-SAMPSON-
SCOTLAND-STANLY-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-WAYNE-WILSON-
INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...DURHAM...WINSTON-SALEM...
GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...ROCKY MOUNT...CHAPEL HILL...RALEIGH...
GOLDSBORO

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO KEEP UP TO DATE SINCE ACTIVATION
COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

HARTFIELD

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150300-
ALAMANCE-ANSON-CHATHAM-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DURHAM-EDGECOMBE-
FORSYTH-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-GUILFORD-HALIFAX-HARNETT-HOKE-JOHNSTON-
LEE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-SAMPSON-
SCOTLAND-STANLY-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-WAYNE-WILSON-
INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...DURHAM...WINSTON-SALEM...
GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...ROCKY MOUNT...CHAPEL HILL...RALEIGH...
GOLDSBORO

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO KEEP UP TO DATE SINCE ACTIVATION
COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

HARTFIELD

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-142300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
MERCURY LEVELS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TOWARD THE DANGER CATEGORY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES AND MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... THE SANDHILLS
AND THE COASTAL PLAIN... INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE... FAYETTEVILLE...
CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO.

THE HEAT INDEX VALUE TELLS HOW HOT IT FEELS WHEN THE EFFECTS OF
HUMIDITY ARE COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC
FLUIDS...ESPECIALLY WATER... AND LIMIT SUN EXPOSURE.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS SHOULD BE
CHECKED ON FREQUENTLY AS THEY ARE THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT.
MAKE SURE THEY ARE KEEPING ADEQUATELY COOL. KEEP PETS IN THE SHADE
AND GIVE THEM PLENTY OF WATER TO DRINK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0243 PM    WADESBORO                 NC   .88 INCH HAIL
08/14/99   ANSON                          ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
                                          GUSTY WINDS