Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
435 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

NGM MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA/NGM ON
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING TO EXPECT THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY (HOWEVER LETS GET
THROUGH TONIGHT FIRST).

BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK OF FLOYD...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OVER SE-ERN SECTIONS OF CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THU. WHILE SUSTAINED
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY BE HARD TO ACHIEVE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
264...WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE NORTH OF THIS AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUS WILL UPGRADED INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH TO INLAND
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF LINE
FROM HENDERSON TO RALEIGH TO RAEFORD. WARNING MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY IF FLOYD ACCELERATES
MORE THAN PROGGED BUT FOR NOW WILL PLACE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
20Z/THU.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF CWA...WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY AS SUSTAINED
WINDS 30-40 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON. HOWEVER IF 4PM CONFERENCE CALL SHIFTS
TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WILL NEED TO TO ADJUST WARNING AREA WEST.

PLAN ON WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS 3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES NORTHEAST SECTION THU MORNING.

MODELS DIFFER ON DRYING AFTER 18Z/THU. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FLOYD
WILL LIKELY MIX DRIER DOWN TO SURFACE INSPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH RH
BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850 MB. PLAN TO GO CONSERVATIVE WITH CLEARING AND
MENTION CLEATING LATE IN FAR SW-SRN COUNTIES AND PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.

****BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK...WILL ADJUST WARNING/ADVISORY AREA
SLIGHTLY AND INTRODUCE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SECTIONS OF NE PIEDMONT
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.*******

.RDU...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT
       AND THURSDAY NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085>089-.
    ...HIGH WIND WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
       NCZ007>008-024>025-039-075>076-084-
    ...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY REMAINDER OF CWA.
    ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ENTIRE CWA.
WSS