Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 1999

SSSLLLLOOOOOWWW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES AND THE HEAVY RAIN AREA
REFUSES TO BUDGE. HAVE HAD LOTS OF 5+ INCH REPORTS FROM THE TRIANGLE
AREA ALTHOUGH FLOODING REMAINS QUITE MINOR.

CENTER OF THE LOW CROSSED BURLINGTON ABOUT 15 MINUTES AGO. THE LOW
(29.98) IS DEEPER THAN ANY OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS 18Z
PROJECTIONS...ALTHOUGH THE ETA IS DEFINITELY CLOSER IN STRENGTH. ITS
TRACK IS RIGHT ON AS WELL WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
LAST ADVISORY TRACK. LOW WAS PROGGED TO TURN NORTHWEST AND INTO
VIRGINIA AT 3 PM...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 8 PM. WILL THUS
USE THE ETA FOR TRENDS.

STORM PROGRESS IS SLOW AND LOOKS LIKE POPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE
RAISED AND SOME CHANCES INTRODUCED TOMORROW. MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP
WITH GOOD OMEGA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MERGES WITH THE LOW
TOWARDS 00Z. CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY. TEMPS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE TROUBLING WHEN FWC
DROPS TOMORROWS HIGHS 10 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z RUN.

WILL REVISIT THE FLOOD WARNING NEAR RELEASE TIME ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE HAD LESS OF A HEAD START TOWARDS SATURATION
PRIOR TO THE HEAVIER RAINS ARRIVAL.

.RAH...NONE.

MLM