Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EST SUN JAN 24 1999

DISC: BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF HATTERAS AROUND 00Z.  FOR ZONES PERHAPS JUST MENTION OF A
FEW SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.  LOOKING AT
SATELLITE AND RADAR...IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING WILL COME QUICKLY
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.  SFC FRONT STILL SLOW MOVING WITH A WAVE IN
CENTRAL NC AND A SFC TROF ALONG THE COAST.  WIND SHIFT AT NEW BERN
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE  LOOKS TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z.  TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRYING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG BEHIND
FRONT.  DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
MIXING AND PREVENT RADIATIVE COOLING.  LOCAL TEMPERATURE SCHEMES
LOOK IN LINE WITH MOS AT EWN...AT HAT LOCAL SCHEME GIVES 48 WHILE
MOS HAS 45. FAVOR A BIT WARMER FOR HAT WITH WIND OFF WATER...SO
THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.  THE AVN AND NGM SHOW A FAST MOVING
SHRTWV CROSSING PA/MD TO OFF THE DELMARVA WITH SOME TROFFING INTO
OUR AREA LATE FRI...WHILE THE ETA IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FEATURE
IN PA/NJ LATE FRI. ALL THE MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE CROSSING VA/NC. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO MAYBE ONLY A FEW SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AT BEST WITH SYSTEM. MOSTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD FOR MON. TEMPS ON MON
NEAR 60 INLAND TO MID 50S OUTER BANKS. MON NIGHT LOOKS CLEAR AGAIN
BUT GRADIENT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SOME
WINDS AND PREVENT STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND AND MID 40S OUTER BANKS. TUE CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY AS
HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA. NERLY FLOW OF WATER WILL COOL THINGS A BIT
ON TUE...BUT WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS.

ZFP: TONIGHT...CLEARING EARLY. LOWS AROUND 40 INLAND TO UPPER
     40S OUTER BANKS.
     MON...MOSTLY SUNNY...HIGHS NEAR 60 INLAND MID 50S OUTER BANKS.
     MON NIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR...LOW UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
     OUTER BANKS.
     TUE...MOSTLY SUNNY...HIGHS MID 50S INLAND AND LOWER 50S
     OUTER BANKS

CWF...WILL DROP HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  WILL TAKE DOWN GALE WARNING DESPITE DSLN7
CURRENTLY REPORTING 40 KT...AS WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND PASSES EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND 15 TO 20KT ON THE SOUNDS.  WILL DROP SCA FOR SOUNDS BUT CONTINUE
FOR COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH SEAS CONTINUING. DSNL7 STILL AT 15 FEET
AND FPSN7 AT 10 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY MON...BUT
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN. WITH SOME CAA ON MON NIGHT EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS...
BUT DON'T EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. ON TUE...AS HIGH BUILDS
OVER AREA...WINDS WILL AG4AIN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS

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