Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 25 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PROBLEMATIC LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AFTER WARMING AND DRYING WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...CONVECTION IS
ONCE AGAIN STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM UP INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US PERSISTS. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
EXTENDED...WILL NOT BELABOR THE POINT MUCH.

850 MB TEMPS INDICATE 1 TO 2 DEG C WARMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A
COOL SURGE MOVING IN FROM THE N-NE MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WARMED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEG OR TWO...THEN COOLED MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
PLAINS...THEN ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN IN THE .75 TO 1 INCH
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS WAITING TO BE TAPPED. THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW DAYS...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY POSE A FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEM SINCE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE AS ABSORBANT AS USUAL. WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. INSTEAD...WILL KEEP
WATCH OVER THE CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...AND INFORM NIGHT CREW.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE
WESTWARD...WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AND CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
STATE. NOTHING STANDS OUT TO ME AS A DRASTIC CHANGE...SO WILL STICK
WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.PUB...NONE.

MOORE

COZ058>081-251900-
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT SUN JUL 25 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. SLIGHT DRYING THIS MORNING...FROM WARMER WEST
WINDS...WILL GIVE WAY THIS AFTERNOON TO A RETURN OF THE MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS...THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...
SUCH AS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.  PERSONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
REGIONS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AS WELL AS STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.