Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
208 PM MDT THU JUN 17 1999

...SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE EFFECTS OF INCOMING
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO ATTM...

...IN THE LONGER TERM...THINKING ABOUT GOOD WARMUP AHEAD AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT SOME LOCATIONS...

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO ATTM.
INITIAL CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
PRETTY WEAK AND SHORTLIVED UPON ENCOUNTERING COOL/STABLE SURFACE
AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS.  LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE CAPES THROUGH THE
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ARE STILL NIL DUE TO SHALLOW COOL AIR
THAT IS ENTRENCHED.  HOWEVER...CAPES ARE BUILDING ALL AROUND THE
ARKANSAS VALLEY...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS TO THE
WEST...THE RATON MESA AND MONUMENT RIDGE.  ALL THESE AREAS ARE
SEEING CAPES FROM 400 TO 1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS.  THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CAPE ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE RATON
MESA AT 1 PM.  THESE AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AS
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH
MONUMENT RIDGE...AS FROM THIS POINT NORTH IS ANOTHER HOTSPOT FOR
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ALSO MODELED AND OBSERVED LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS REGION.  MAY BE TOO COOL/STABLE
EAST OF EL PASO...PUEBLO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FOR MUCH
TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

AFTER TONIGHT...SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE PATTERN SETS UP OVER COLORADO FOR
WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRUE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.
ALREADY GOOD DRYING INDICATED OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  ALONG WITH THE DRYING...GOOD WARMING
FORECAST AS WELL.  SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY.  SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PROBABLY WARM AND (MOSTLY) DRY TOO.  HOWEVER...THE DRY PART
IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE END UP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF OUR PROTECTIVE RIDGE.  THIS COULD ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES TOO SWING ACROSS TX AND NM UP INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS IS NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED WITH ANY CERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS...BUT MAY HAPPEN NONE-THE-LESS.  WILL OPT TO REMOVE
EXTENDED FORECAST TSTORM CHANCES FROM MANY LOW ELEVATION SITES FOR
NOW...AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED
(MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER) WITH A BIG BUBBLE OF WARM AIR OVER US.

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-172000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT THU JUN 17 1999

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PUSHING INTO WESTERN COLORADO JUST
PRIOR TO NOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE WAS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN COLORADO.  AT 1130 AM MDT...A THUNDERSTORM
WAS OCCURRING AT THE GRAND JUNCTION AIRPORT.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE
TRACKS EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN POPPING OVER THE PLAINS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE
LIGHTNING...3/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO RUN ALONG AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...FROM MONUMENT RIDGE SOUTH TO THE RATON MESA.
THE PLAINS EAST OF THIS AREA MAY BE TOO COOL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
BUT THE CHANCE STILL EXISTS.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING TODAY...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.