Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
200 PM MDT FRI MAY 21 1999

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...FEW CB JUST STARTING TO POP ALONG AND
EAST OF MOUNTAINS. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS PLAINS AND
BELIEVE ATMOS HAS MIXED OUT AS DWPTS ARE REMAINING STEADY ACROSS THE
FA. IR SAT IMGY INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING STATE FROM THE
WEST...WHILE WAT VAP SHOWS LOW CUTTING OFF OVER S CALIF.

DISCUSSION...GRIDDED DATA IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PD. DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOUR TIME FRAME...CUTOFF IS PRGD TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
EAST...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED IN W ARIZ BY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND ITS AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ABOUT
115 LONGITUDE (MONTANA) BY MONDAY. AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE SLOWLY
EAST...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS...BEING LOCATED OVER THE N HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MONDAY MID MORNING.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED W/SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER CO SAT MORNING AND
MOVE DOWN THE EAST SLOPE...AND THROUGH THE PUB CWA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. AFTER FRONT GOES BY...FLOW WILL TURN
UPSLOPE WITH GOOD SURGE MOVING INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AM...WEAKENING SUN AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING OUR
WX LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEP SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S
COLORADO.

FORECAST...SHORT TERM...ANTICPATE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION.
STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR CELL DEVELOPING. AFTER SUNSET...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR.

FOR SAT...AS FRONT MOVES TOWARDS AREA...SFC WINDS SHOULD VEER A
BIT...BECOMING MORE S TO SSW OVER THE SE CWA. THIS WILL NOT FAVOR
TSTORM DEVELOPEMENT TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTH...CONVG WILL BE INCREASING WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
FIRE. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SVR (SPC SWODY2) ATTM...BUT WILL SEE A
FEW STORMS DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. MIGHT LIKLEY
SEE SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN THE GREATER PIKES PEAK/PALMER
DIVIDE AREA AS FRONT AND ENSUING UPSLOPE DEVELOP.

SUNDAY MIGHT BE BEST SHOT OF ORG SVR DEVELOPING OVER SE
CO...ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS...AS MID LVL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE
SHEAR PROFILE...AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ONLY CONCERN IS
THAT IT MIGHT BE A BIT TO COOL TO GET CONVECTION GOING (ALTHOUGH
THIS WAS NOT A PROBLEM LAST SUNDAY).

MONDAY COULD BE QUITE AN INTERESTING DAY. CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM
CUTOFF OUT WEST...IMMEDIATE AREAS E OF MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND
MTN AREAS SHOULD HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY MIGHT EVEN SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STRONG CELLS IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND E SAN JUAN MTNS.

OVERALL A NICE WEEKEND...SOME LATE THUNDER SAT EVENING...AND POSSIBY
SOME ORGANIZED THUNDER OUT EAST SUNDAY.

HODANISH