Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
211 PM MDT THU AUG 5 1999

...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT...

GEOPOTENTIAL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY....WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CO.  SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CONTINUED STREAM OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CO FROM THE
SOUTH...WHICH WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SATELLITE SHOWS
...AND MODELS CONFIRM A PV FEATURE IN THE FLOW OVER NM...THAT IS
WORKING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A FEW GATES OF
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE VWP. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOUTHEAST WIND AT THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A SURFACE LOW
THEN FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST.  ACCORDING TO THE VWP AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE MODELS ARE NOT VERIFYING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WE ALREADY HAVE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND THE VWP IS SHOWING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.  THIS MAY
HELP TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM BEING ANCHORED NEXT TO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS BETWEEN
700 AND 500MB THIS EVENING...TO HOPEFULLY KEEP STORMS MOVING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE EASTERN MTNS TO THE
KANSAS BORDER.  ALL THIS IS LEADING TO THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE....AND IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY...
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE SOUTHWEST THAN UPSLOPE TONIGHT...THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN EARLIER DECREASE IN POPS TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...
WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS AGAIN EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME BEING
PUSHED EAST. HAVE SEEN DRYING IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
WEEKS...THAT HAS NOT ACTUALLY HAPPENED...BUT I CANNOT BE SURE THAT IT
WILL NOT HAPPEN.  SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SOME POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW OR NO POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA...THE TEMPS WILL WARM.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS PATTERN DOES
NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

.PUB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...ZONES 65<68-70<81.