Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
MO...INTERSECTING MORE INTENSE LOW OVER CENTRAL TX. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BRING SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP TO THE FA THIS EVENING/TNGT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION
AND IR SAT PICS INDICATE COOLING TOPS OVER SEMO WITH TEMPS IN THE
-65C RANGE. IN ADDITION...07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR AND SEMO ARE DEVELOPING ALONG DEW POINT RIDGE AXIS WHICH
WAS POISED IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION FROM NW IL THROUGH SEMO TO
SC AR.

00Z SAT MODEL RUN SHOWS ALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BEST
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TDY. NEGATIVE ENERGY SHOULD
ARRIVE SUN ALONG WITH SIGNIFCANT DRYING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUN.
THUS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS IN ZONES WITH WORDING ALONG THE LINES
OF DRY OVER WEST HALF AND ENDING OVER EAST. THE AVN INDICATES PRECIP
RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY AS VORT MAX EJECTS FROM LOW CENTER
WHICH SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF FA BY THAT TIME. GOOD DRY PUNCH
INDICATED DURING DAY TUE MAKES IT APPEAR THAT RETURN MOISTURE WILL
HOLD OFF AT LEAST TIL OVNGT TUE.

FAN AND FWC IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND
CLOUDS MAY HAVE TO TRIM TEMPS A BIT IN FIRST PERIOD.

.PAH...NONE.
HOOPER