Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS... AS PER WW 274.
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS MAINTAINED A LOCAL MAX IN THIS
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS
RESULTED IN WEAKER SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE... A
COLD FRONT IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST. ETA IS INDICATING A
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT... LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODELS SEEM TO
USE RESULTING LIFT TO WEAKEN THE CAP A BIT OVER THE AREA. THUS COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER IN THE AREA BY TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA.

FCSTID = 32
OKC   68  78  56  80 /  50  60  10   0
HBR   66  81  55  83 /  50  50  10   0
SPS   69  81  57  83 /  50  60  20   0
GAG   61  71  50  79 /  40  20  10   0
PNC   68  76  55  78 /  50  50  10   0
DUA   71  80  59  82 /  40  60  30  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.