Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 1999

DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THE COLD FRONT WAS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE SET UP MORE IN
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PERHAPS BEAVER COUNTY OKLAHOMA.  12Z OUN
SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT CAP... BUT LAPS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
VALUES ARE DECREASING FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND SOME CU
IS TRYING TO DEVELOP DOWN IN KNOX COUNTY.  IT STILL SEEMS A BIT OF A
LONG SHOT FOR STORMS TO FORM THIS EVENING... BUT WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRYLINE... GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING AND LARGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SHOULD THE CAP BREAK... AM CURRENTLY PLANNING
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST AND WILL
WATCH TRENDS THROUGH PRESS TIME.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP
CLOSER TO THE 100TH MERIDIAN AND BY 00Z/17 A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
DEVELOPS ALONG IT.  AND AS UPPER TROF MOVES CLOSER SUNDAY EVENING
THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ABOUT THE SHARPNESS OF
THE UPPER TROF BY 48 HOURS WITH THE NGM SHOWING A BETTER DEFINED
TROF THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  AM A BIT UNTRUSTING OF SPECIFICS WITH
ANY OF THEM AS NONE SEEM TO INITIALIZE THE WAVE VERY WELL THAT WAS
IN THE VICINITY OF 40N/130W AT 12Z AND HAS LOOKED TO BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE MORNING PER WATER VAPOR LOOP.  I AM GOING
TO NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY AND THUS WILL KEEP DECENT POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY.  MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST
BUT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED KEEPING WEDNESDAY DRY THEN INTRODUCING POPS AGAIN
THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 26
OKC   72  86  69  80 /  20  20  40  40
HBR   68  88  64  81 /  20  20  40  40
SPS   71  90  69  85 /  20  20  40  40
GAG   66  84  58  74 /  10  20  30  30
PNC   70  84  67  78 /  20  20  40  50
DUA   70  85  70  83 /  20  20  30  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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