Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED JUN 9 1999

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH TROPICAL
AIR MASS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. BEST
LOCATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY
MESOSCALE FACTORS, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ANY ACTIVITY THAT ORGANIZES SUFFICIENTLY. CURRENT
ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN OK IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE
THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON MESONET. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER HIGH PLAINS, IN VICINITY OF
DRYLINE AND FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
JET. THESE MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FARTHER N IN VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS. BOUNDARIES FROM ANY OF THESE COULD MOVE
INTO OUR CWA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT THU, BUT
KNOT KNOWING WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE, WE WILL SHOTGUN LOW
POPS OVER ENTIRE CWA THU AFTERNOON.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THU NIGHT INTO SAT.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS THU EVE OVER NE/KS AREA NEAR SURFACE FRONT
PER LATEST QPFPFD. THIS COULD NUDGE THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SE, CLOSER TO NW OK THU NIGHT INTO FRI. COMPLEX ALSO COULD
BACKBUILD TO THE SW AND APPROACH NW CORNER OF OK. THUS HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, AS WELL AS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER
ROUND APPEARS LIKELY NEAR DRYLINE THU EVENING.

PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN FRONT SAGGING SE ACROSS AREA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WITH CORRESPONDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SUN-MON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETS UP OVER
PLAINS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH OVER CO/KS PROVIDES DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR.

FCSTID = 24
OKC   69  87  69  87 /  20  20  20  20
HBR   68  89  67  90 /  30  20  30  30
SPS   70  90  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
GAG   66  88  65  087 /  30  20  30  30
PNC   70  88  69  89 /  20  20  20  30
DUA   71  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
443 PM CDT WED JUN  9 1999

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    2 N FAIRMONT              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/09/99   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0440 PM    3 W HENNESSEY             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/09/99   KINGFISHER                     REPORTED BY HENHNESSEY PD.

TL

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 PM CDT WED JUN  9 1999

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0346 PM    DRUMMOND                  OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/09/99   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC RELAYED
                                          BY EOC.

TL