Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CST SAT JAN 30 1999

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW DRIFTING JUST SOUTH OF OUN
AT PRESS TIME WITH ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL ZONES IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE.  HOWEVER..
ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE TREND OF MAIN PRECIP AREA CONTINUING
TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD OUT OF MY AREA DURING THE EVENING.  AS A
RESULT..HAVE PULLED ALL MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST.  SMALL
AREA WHERE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WUD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW NEAR UPPER LOW
CENTER IS MOISTURE STARVED AND APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY.  LOW
CLOUDS WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE SEEMS THE LIKELY SCENARIO OVER MOST OF
THE FA TONITE..WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING IN THE N CENTRAL ZONES.

THE NEXT QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW TO HANDLE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND
THEIR AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIODS.  12Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE A TREND TO KEEPING MUCH
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM CREATING A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.  IT APPEARS
THAT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO BREAK.  IN
FACT..WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOST AREAS NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL
NEXT TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY
TURNS WINDS TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.  FORECAST FOR PERIODS 3
THRU 5 REFLECTS THIS TREND.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS A BIT MILDER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE
SUGGESTS..ESP IF ONE BELIEVES THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS.
TRENDED EXTENDED PERIODS TO MILDER TEMPS WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TUE/WED.  IF FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND PLAYS OUT..MAY NOT BE
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUE..BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY..LEFT
IT IN ATTM.
 MILLER

FCSTID = 21
OKC   36  43  36  50 /  10  10  10   0
HBR   32  44  33  55 /  10  10   0   0
SPS   36  48  35  59 /  10  10   0   0
GAG   30  41  28  50 /  30  10   0   0
PNC   35  42  34  47 /  50  1L0  10  10
DUA   37  47  37  55 /  10  10   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.