Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON APR 26 1999

MESONET INDICATES NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL ACT
AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RUNS FROM FREEDOM TO TALOGA TO BINGER
THEN EAST TO NORMAN TO SEMINOLE. AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE RECOVERED LESS DURING THE DAY SINCE RAIN
OCCURRED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. A SECOND
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM CHICASHA TO DUNCAN TO WAURIKA WHICH HAS A WEAK
DRYLINE TYPE APPEARANCE. BEST CELLS APPEAR TO BE FIRING NEAR TRIPLE
POINT OF DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL
BRING MAINLY A HAIL THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.
CELLS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHORT TERM WITH MOVING
SURFACE LOW FROM OKLAHOMA SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI AND STALLING THERE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND CURRENT SHORTWAVE RESULTING
IN WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE STATE...MAKING FOR A SETTLED TWO
DAY PERIOD.

IN EXTENDED...MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP NEXT CUTOFF JUST WEST WITH
HINT OF UPPER DIFLUENT/POSSIBLY DIVERGENT FLOW OVER OR JUST TO THE
WEST OF CWA. UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED SINCE MODELS INDICATE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL
TEND TO KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST RECYCLED FLOW IN LOWER LAYERS.  KEPT
A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED EACH DAY. WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE.

33 / D FLOYD

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE.

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