Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EDT THU AUG 5 1999

DISC: CDFNT STRNG TO CREATE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY NOW THAT WE HAVE
DAYTIME HEATING. BOTH MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WL CONTINUE
TO GO TO OUR N...BUT THE H5 TROF DIPS DOWN AND THERE IS A SHOT OF
VORT THAT WL COME THRU WITH THE SFC FNT. LI/S SL RUNNING ARND -2.
ALY MRNG SNDG SHOWS LIFTING IS A -4 AND THE TT40-45. WITH STL PLENTY
OF DAYLIGHT AND THE ENERGY IS CONTNG TO MOV E WE CAN SEE SOME TSMTS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF TDY. OUR RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TSTMS MOVG E AT
20-30 MPH FM N OF BGM INTO WRN NY. WL ADD A REST OF TDY PD TO COVR
ANY TSTMS ACTIVITY THAT WE MAY SEE. MOST OF THE STORMS SHD JUST
PRODUCE SOME MOD TO HVY RAIN AS THE PW IS RUNNING ABOUT 1.5 IN.

THE MODIFIED SNGS SUGGEST THAT THE WNDS DO INCRS A BIT AT THE H5-H3
LVL AND A JET WL FOLLOW THIS INTO OUR AREA. IF ANY OF THE TSTMS DO
DVLP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WNDS WL BE THERE. WL NOT MENTION
THIS IS THE FCST AS THE STORMS WL BE WIDE SPREAD.

ONCE FNT MOVS THRU ARND 00-02Z. THE SHWRS WL COME TO AND END AND
AND AREA OF NVA DOES MOV IN. SKIES SHD CLR FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WNDS
BECM W-NW. BY THE END OF THE FCST PD A RIDGE WL BEGIN TO DVLP AND WE
SHD STRT TO HEAT UP AGAIN.

MARINE...WNDS AND SEAS WL BELOW SCA CRIT.

.NYC/OKX...NONE.

GSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EDT THU AUG 05 1999

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0413 PM    OYSTER BAY                NY   WIND DAMAGE
08/05/99   NASSAU                         3 TO 4 FT DIAMETER TREES
                                          DOWN ALONG WITH POWER
                                          LINES

0416 PM    FARMINGVILLE              NY   .75 INCH HAIL
08/05/99   SUFFOLK                        DIME SIZE HAIL AT EXIT 63
                                          ON THE LIE