Tornado Warning 15, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 AM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

PESSIMISM ABOUNDS IN TDY'S FCST, AS LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR TSTMS
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION, SLOW-MOVING
CLOSED LOW PRES AREA AND EXPECTED PWA'S OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCH SUGGEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS WELL. SPS'S ISSUED OVER LAST
DAY OR SO ARE PEGGING THIS SITUATION QUITE WELL, AND WILL KEEP
CURRENT LINE OF THINKING WITH ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS THIS MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALREADY SPILLING ACROSS TN RIVER TONIGHT
INTO WRN PARTS OF OUR CWA, AND BLV MORE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NRN MS BY NOON TDY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS A BROADER PART OF OUR
CWA BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITH HGT BCMS WELL-
ESTABLISHED OVER AT LEAST THE WRN 1/2 OF OUR CWA BY 00Z SAT,
AS 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND 250-300MB FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. STRONG JET DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER
THE MID-STATE THROUGHOUT FRI NIGHT, AS 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING FNT. EXPECT FNT TO BE BTWN MS AND
TN RIVERS BY 06Z SAT AND NR BNA BY 12Z SAT.
<<
LOOKS LIKE MAIN SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY COME IN
SEVERAL WAVES:  THE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS JET DYANMICS INCREASE, AND THE SECOND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SFC FNT LATER FRI NIGHT.

1000-700MB HELICITIES OF BTWN 300 AND 500 M2/S2 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN MIDDLE TN, COUPLED WITH STORM REL
ONFLOW OF 20-35 KTS SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE PSBL AS
WELL.

WITH CLOSED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND SLOW EWD MOVEMENT,
SUGGEST WE TRIM POPS BACK JUST A LTL IN ERN MIDDLE TN TDY
(INTO THE "GOOD CHC" CATEGORY). THUS, PREFER NGM'S PRECIP
SOLUTION OVER ETA'S FOR 1ST PD.

WITH TEMPS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGS ABV NORMAL TDY, BLV WE SHOULD
ALSO INTRODUCE "UNSEASONABLY WARM" INTO FCST TXT, AND KEEP
THE MENTION OF "BREEZY" THROUGH TONIGHT. WOULD ALSO MENTION
"HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY" TONIGHT IN EXPECTATION OF LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 1.5 TO 2" INCHES. WOULD ALSO MENTION "SVR TSTMS PSBL" TDY IN
WRN MIDDLE TN AND AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
<<
SAD TO SAY, AM ALREADY DREADING COMING IN TO WORK TOMORROW NIGHT.

19

TNZ005>011-022>034-055>066-075>080-093>097-221359-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1259 AM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.  IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR
THESE AREAS YOU MAY WANT TO DELAY.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE COULD GET INTO WESTERN AREAS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THRUST OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL NOT COME UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WHEN A STRONG UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS TOWARDS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.  WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOYD

TNZ005>011-022>034-055>066-075>080-093>097-221759-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
142 AM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE INCLUDING DECATUR AND BENTON
COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOME CONTAINING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING DECATUR AND BENTON COUNTIES IN WEST
TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING BY THE STATE FORECAST OFFICE
IN MEMPHIS FOR AREAS IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS INTO THESE AREAS YOU MAY
WANT TO DELAY UNTIL THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TODAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS TOWARDS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORNADOES THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING T0DAY AND
TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PLAN WHERE YOU MIGHT SEEK SHELTER.  IN YOUR HOME...IF YOU HAVE A
BASEMENT THAT WOULD BE THE BEST PLACE.  IF NOT...AN INTERIOR CLOSET
OR ROOM.  REMEMBER TO STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED HEADER TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
410 AM CDT FRI JAN 22 1999

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 AM    CAMDEN                    TN   WIND DAMAGE
01/22/99   BENTON
                                          1 HOUSE DESTROYED AND
                                          A TRAILER HOME BLOCKING
                                          HIGHWAY ABOUT 8 MILES
                                          NORTH OF CAMDEN. POWER
                                          LINES DOWN.