Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999

CURRENT...CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE SW MIDDLE TN AND NRN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AHEAD OF CDFNT IN WRN TN APPROACHING TN RIVER.
TEMPS HOT...IN MID 90S TO NR 100 DEG FOR MOST PART.

FORECAST...SOME MORE TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE IN CONVERGENCE ZONE
AMD MODERATE INSTABILITY.  COULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE...BUT WON/T
MENTION IN ZONES.  HAVE TO WATCH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KY AS
IT PUSHES S.  BEST POPS TONITE E PORTIONS.  FRONT GETS TO PLATEAU
LATE TONITE AND MOVES SLOLY E THEREAFTER.  HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM
MIDWEST AFTER TOMORROW.

AS FOR TEMPS...A BIT TRICKY FOR HI TEMP FRI.  AM REMINDED OF LAST
FRONT THAT WENT THRU AND TEMPS FOLLOWING IT (AUG 14TH) WERE MUCH CCOLER
THAN MOS FORECAST (SOME 10 DEG).  LOOKE UPSTREAM WHERE COLD IR SC IS
OCCURING AND MODEL PERFORMANCE WAS OFF 5-10 DEG IN PLACES LIKE SPI
AND DSM.  LOOKED BACK ON SATURDAY AND FOUND THAT MODELS WOULD HAVE YIELDED
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF LOCAL TEMP SCHEME UTILIZED.  USED IT FOR
TOMORROW AND IT YIELDS LOWER 80S SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS BY ABOUT 5
DEG...MAYBE MORE IF SO INCLINED.  ONLY THING IS...THIS RUN NOT AS
PRONOUNCED W/ SC FIELD AS SATURDAY WAS.

BNA  EB  68/82/65/88  2000
CSV  EB  64/79/60/84  3000

.BNA...NONE.

MAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
427 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0329 PM    DIANA                     TN   WIND DAMAGE
08/19/99   GILES                          COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN
                                          DOWN NEAR DIANA

0350 PM    APPLETON                  TN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/19/99   LAWRENCE                       SPOTTER REPORTED THE HAIL NEAR
                                          APPLETON

0412 PM    LEBANON                   TN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/19/99   WILSON                         SPOTTER REPORTED THE HAIL JUST
                                          SOUTHWEST OF LEBANON

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    ST JOSEPH                 TN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/19/99   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0507 PM    LEBANON                   TN   WIND DAMAGE
08/19/99   WILSON                         PUBLIC REPORTED TELEPHONE
                                          POLES BLOWN DOWN ABOUT 7
                                          E OF LEBANON AT TUCKERS
                                          CROSSROADS

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0507 PM    LEBANON                   TN   WIND DAMAGE
08/19/99   WILSON                         PUBLIC REPORTED TELEPHONE
                                          POLES BLOWN DOWN ABOUT 7
                                          E OF LEBANON AT TUCKERS
                                          CROSSROADS

STEIGERWALDT

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