Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
144 PM CDT THU AUG 12 1999

...CURRENT WEATHER...

1800 UTC SURFACE PLOT SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE NASHVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE STILL BETWEEN
70 AND 75 DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE
90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME PLACES.

WSR-88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS THE
GREATEST. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID STATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

...MODEL DISCUSSION...

ETA AND NGM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM. AVN SEEMS ABOUT 6 HOURS BEHIND...SO WILL FAVOR
AN ETA/NGM BLEND THIS FORECAST.

SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH NASHVILLE AROUND 0600 UTC SATURDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME
SECTION PLOTS FOR BOTH NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE SHOW STRONGEST LIFT
CENTERED BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100 UTC TOMORROW. MIDDLE LEVELS WILL
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY THIS TIME.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY TOMORROW EVENING...AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FWC/FAN TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND IN AGREEMENT WITH VALUES GIVEN BY THE MASSIE/ROSE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SCHEME. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE FWC/FAN TEMPERATURES
AND POPS.

BNA BU 075/095 072/090 067 08242
CSV BU 069/090 068/085 062 08243

.BNA...NONE.

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