Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 1999

WELL...LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS HAS MCS 1 SLIGHTLY
FIZZLING OUT AS THE COMPLEX ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
CORFIDI VECTORS TRACKED THE COMPLEX TO NEAR PERFECTION TO THE S-SE.
SO WILL BRING BACK THE ORIGINAL WORDING OF POPS IN THE WEST AND
DELETE THE THIS EVENING PERIOD.

00Z SOUNDING STILL UNSTABLE BUT MUCH DRIER THAN LAST 3 SWINGS.
SW WINDS DRIED THE INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER TO BELOW 1.8
INCHES AND CAPES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  2ND MCS IS
ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF TN...AND ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF MIDDLE TN.  HOWEVER...WITH LIS OF -4...AND K INDICES OF
NEAR 30 WILL LEAVE SCT POPS EVERYWHERE.

FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL VALID FOR THE PLATEAU...AS MAIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL MISS THE PLATEAU.   WITH ALL THE RAIN THEY
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST 72 HOURS...LIGHT SW WINDS AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU SHOULD HAVE FOG.

MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO ADDRESS FFA POTENTIAL IN WRN MIDDLE TN DUE TO
ALL THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WEST.  OLD ETA HAS VERY STRONG
VORT MAX THAT KEEP TRACKING SE FROM MO & NE IN THE VICINITY
OF SURFACE FRONT AND IT TRACKS IT INTO ALL OF MIDDLE TN ON MON.

JDG