Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
218 AM EDT THU MAY 6 1999

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA THIS MORNING.  SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST ND WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS EAST MO AND INTO EASTERN AR AND LA.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING 500 MB TROF.  NGM AND AVN
REASONABLY CLOSE IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT WHILE ETA IS SLOWER. PREFER
THE NGM/AVN SOLUTION.  RECOMMEND KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN FOR TODAY
AS COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING CWA BY 18Z.  PROBABLY SEE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS TO SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA AFTER 18Z...PROBABLY WONT SEE
STORMS AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA.  STORMS LATER TODAY
SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...SO FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN.  UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SO CHANCE POPS STILL NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.

CHA TB 079/059 079/058 080 21633
TYS TB 078/058 078/057 079 21633
TRI TB 077/056 077/055 078 21633
OQT TB 078/058 078/057 079 21633

GH

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