Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
845 PM EST SUN JAN 17 1999

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALING A NARROW SURGE OF WARM..MOIST
AIR OVER MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE
OVER AR/WEST TN AND A DIGGING JET STREAK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE TSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT. WOULD RECOMMEND MENTIONING 'SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE'
TONIGHT ACROSS AREA RECENTLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S CURRENTLY AT OUR DOORSTEP...WOULD MENTION
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...CURRENT VWP
FROM KMRX SHOWING WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT 3000-4000 FEET.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT..SO WINDS WILL NEED TO
BE RAISED A CATEGORY IN ALL MT ZONES TO REFLECT BREEZY CONDITIONS. A
WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA FOR THE MT ZONES TONIGHT AS
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.

DMG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-180500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 PM EST SUN JAN 17 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER MOST OF EAST
TENNESSEE AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF EAST TENNESSEE AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
COPPERHILL IN POLK COUNTY...TO THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...TO THE TRI
CITIES AND TO WISE VIRGINIA. THIS INCLUDES THE CHATTANOOGA...
KNOXVILLE...AND TRI CITIES METRO AREAS.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND SHOULD APPROACH THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS THE
LINE CROSSES THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY NEED TO
BE ACTIVATED LATER TONIGHT. ALSO...RESIDENTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR FAVORITE RADIO
AND TV STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DMG