Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT THU JUN 10 1999

SOUTHEAST FLOW CREATING TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND DOWNBURSTS. THIS
SAME SCENARIO SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN TOMORROW WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED WITH THE SAME UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AT MID LEVELS.
VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD COMBINE TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSTORMS TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TSTORMS
TOMORROW SHOULD AGAIN INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE WINDS AND THE ELEVATED HEATING SOURCE. THINK A
MENTION OF LIKELY POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH MINS AS DEWPOINTS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. AS FOR MAXES...WILL TREND TOWARD NGM
NUMBERS AS AN INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND SCATTERED TSTORMS SHOULD
COMBINE TO LOWER MAXES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA 69/88 69/85 68 2545
TYS 66/86 66/84 66 2434
TRI 63/85 61/83 61 2323
OQT 66/87 66/85 66 2434

DMG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-102000-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 AM EDT THU JUN 10 1999

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SKY-WARN SPOTTERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT  SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

PDK

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-110100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 PM EDT THU JUN 10 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   THIS AFTERNOON...

SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY HIGH
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA...ARE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS AND SOME
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN STREAMS.

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SKY-WARN SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.