Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 1999

CU/TWRG CU EXPANDING A BIT ALG DRY LN/PSEUDO CLD FNT PUSHING INTO
FAR WESTERN ZONE FORECAST AREA...NR DXX.  DEWPOINTS DROP RAPIDLY
THRU THE 60S INTO THE 50S IN ERN SD.  MODIFIED MPX SOUNDING REVEALS
CAPES INCRG TO OVR 3500 WITH SFC DWPTS NR 70 AND TEMPS REACHING MID
TO UPR 80S...HOWEVER WK CAP STILL IN PLACE.  VRY DRY OAX MORNING
SOUNDING WITH 85H DD OF 29 DEGREES.  DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR HVY RAINS INTO SERN MN/WI CWA LATR THIS AFTERNOON.  ADAP
SHOWING BEST THETA ADVECTION BUILDING IN NRN IA AND LATEST RUC SHOWS
TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT DVLPG THIS AFTN WITH STG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
OVR ERN HALF OF MN CWA.  ISOLD CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING IN
NORTH CENTRAL IA BUT HELD DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF CAP.  RIGHT
ENTRANCE RGN OF EMBEDDED 100KT JETLET RESULTING IN EXPANDING NNEWD
MOVG CONVECTION INTO SRN IA.  HELD OFF ON WND ADVY FOR NOW DUE TO
INCR IN CU FIELD PREVENTING DEEP MIXING.  TEMPS IN BALLPARK.

.MSP...NONE.
KAVINSKY

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-070200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 1999

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
QUITE AS GREAT IN FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA FROM NEAR
MOORHEAD TO MORRIS TO MARSHALL.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THEN INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. PERSONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD WARNINGS BE
NECESSARY.

KAVINSKY