Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR PCPN OVER MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING POPS INTO WED NIGHT. AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS LOOK
TO HAVE INITIALIZED...NGM DIFFERS WITH UPPER FEATURES OVER FA THIS
PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE OVER ERN TX THIS MORNING TO EJECT E ALONG
GULF COAST AS UPPER LOW OVER PLAINS STATES LIFTS NE. FAIRLY STRONG
850MB JET PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER REGION TONIGHT AND WED...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT AND DEEP LAYER OF GULF MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO REGION.
DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL FA...AND
EXPECT THESE VALUES TO ADVECT INLAND TODAY.  AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENUF UVVS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER
REGION. MID AND LOW LEVEL LIFT INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WED IN
ADVANCE OF SFC FEATURE WHICH WILL BE JUST W OF MS RIVER BY PERIODS
END. AS A RESULT...SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER FA
TUE NIGHT AND WED.  WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS N OF FA...WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS HIGH AS AVN POPS...BUT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK TO BE
IN ORDER FOR TONIGHT AND WED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE THREAT OVER WESTERN CWA TONIGHT AND WED.

COASTAL WATERS...SE-S WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
THIS PERIOD PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND WED.

MOB 83/69/82/67 3453  PNS 79/70/79/70 2453
DTS 79/70/79/71 2353  GZH 84/64/83/65 2454 12

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDFLOW
WILL BRING ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. TONIGHT...AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST BY AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY. CAUTION
IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES..ESPECIALLY OVER MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.
WWW.NWSMOBILE.NOAA.GOV