Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 AM CDT THU APR 29 1999

BIG PICTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE DIGGING TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH GOOD CAA PUSHING WELL SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY FRI MIDDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRES SETTING OVER THE REGION THIS AFT AND EVE WILL QUICKLY BE
INTERRUPTED BY THIS COOLER AIR BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING
FOR MOST OF THE FA. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF PASSING SW TO THE NE MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HRS. WITH
EXPECTED FLOW FROM THE SW BY THIS AFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE
SFC TO 850 MB...INCREASED CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY BE OF CONCERN BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFT.

LATEST PROGGS BASICALLY ALL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT
PATTERN DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF MOVING SE TO THE GA CST BY
AFTER 12Z OR SO FRI. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE UP TO 5K FT
OR SO THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF S AL AND NWFL AS SYSTEM
PASSES...SUGGESTING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA LATER THIS AFT AND EVE IS LIKELY. BY FRI BELIEVE
LINGERING STATUS MIXED POSSIBLY W/ LIGHT RA AT TIMES COULD ALSO MAKE
THINGS TRICKY TO THE E LATER IN THE PD. ALSO...BELIEVE BETTER
CLOUDINESS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WILL BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE
FA BEGINNING LATER THIS AFT CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRI.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WIND SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFT AND EARLY
EVE BECOMING N THEN NE 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT BY EARLY FRI CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. SCEC MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BEGINNING LATE SAT CONTINUING INTO SUN AND MON.

MOB 85/56/75/54 2210  PNS 85/60/73/57 332-
DTS 79/55/73/51 332-  GZH 84/63/74/59 331- 32

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND NORTHWEST FL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
605 AM CDT THU APR 29 1999

WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF ALABAMA INCREASED
INSTABILITY ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FURTHER TO
THE WEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRETCHING FROM
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO ALABAMA FROM EVERGREEN TO
CAMDEN. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.
WWW.NWSMOBILE.NOAA.GOV

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND NORTHWEST FL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 AM CDT THU APR 29 1999

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.
WWW.NWSMOBILE.NOAA.GOV