Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
303 PM CST SUN JAN 17 1999

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S REACHING INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF MS AND AL STRETCHING E ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF CST.
LATEST GRIDDED DATA PREFERABLY A MIX OF ETA AND NGM SHOW SURFACE BASE
CAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FA AS TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER NORTH MAIN MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING EAST
FROM NORTHERN TX TO THE TN VAL THROUGH 12Z MON WITH BETTER UPPER
VVELS AFFECTING MOSTLY NORTHERN AND MAYBE SOME CENTRAL PARTS OF AL
AND GA. WITH UPSTREAM MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATING WETBULB ZEROS
AROUND 8K FT AND HIGHER INSTABILITIES MENTIONED EARLIER BY THIS AFT
BELIEVE ANY STRONG TS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ATTN...CURRENT RADAR LOOPS
SHOW MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MOVING NE
AT 45 TO 50 KTS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH IS STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS WILL STAY WITH CURRENT SPS
AND POPS. FOG ALSO LIKELY TO RETURN ALONG THE CST LATER THIS EVE.
COOLER DRYER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE
CST BY EARLY TUES MORNING.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT SHOULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER E INTO FL THIS ROUND. FOG MOSTLY LIKELY
BECOME DENSE AT TIMES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
15 TO 20 KTS AT MOST DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE MONDAY. SCEC
MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS MONDAY.

MOB 54/68/38/64 3000  PNS 59/70/39/64 2000
DTS 60/68/43/62 2000  GZH 50/66/34/62 3000 32

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND NORTHWEST FL...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1030 AM CST SUN JAN 17 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
AID IN THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT WILL MEANWHILE LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING CREATING A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL LATER PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ATTAIN SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.