Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 1999

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED NEAR A GLH TO CSV LINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  MAIN DYNAMIC MID/UPPER FORCING NOTED FURTHER N NEAR THIS
FEATURE WHERE REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWS RAINFALL TO BE A BIT
MORE WIDEPSREAD JUST N OF A GLH-HSV-CHA LINE.  DOWN THIS WAY...RAINS
A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD BUT STILL SCT-NUMEROUS IN AREAS...FIRING MAINLY
ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM PREVOUS CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON
HEATING.

MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT BRINGING WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NRN MS/AL A BIT
FURTHER S NEXT 48 HRS...POOLING MEAN MOISTURE ALONG IT SWD INTO SRN
AL AND GA.  MODELS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL COME SWD OUT OF CANADA AMPLIFYING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES.  WHILE MOST OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL REMAIN FURTHER N...AS EACH ONE PASSES IT WILL GIVE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY A WEAK SHOVE FURTHER S...STALLING IT OUT JUST N OF THE
COAST BY TUE.  SURFACE BURMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION IS NOW FURTHER S
KEEPING EFFECTS OF TROPICAL ELYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT BE A
FACTOR.  WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN NRN AREAS AND THE
USUAL SCT POPS ALONG THE COAST.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN 50 NM
OFFSHORE KEEPING NRN GULF WATERS IN A LIGHT SLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  MAIN THREATS TO BOATERS WILL BE SCT TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LAND BREEZE IN THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LAND BASED CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.  BHMWRKMO2 AVAILABLE FOR WSFO
NEW REVIEW SHORTLY.

MOB 74/89/74/89 3545  PNS 75/90/74/90 3545
DTS 77/88/76/88 3545  GZH 72/88/72/90 4645 05