Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
238 AM CDT THU MAY 6 1999

TONIGHTS ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTH CNTRL
US WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO LA AND THEN ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST.  MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
KICK OUT AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITIES AND
DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT TO CONT
THE CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU AT LEAST TONIGHT.  ONE SHORT
WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NRN MS-AL-GA AND PRODUCING NUMEROUS
TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SO FAR...BUT THE CAP OVER THE AREA IS
QUICKLY ERODING AND EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF ACITIVITY TO EXTEND FURTHER
SWD BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.  THE FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO CNTRL-
EAST MS BY LATE THIS AFTN...THEN STALL ACROSS THE WRN EDGES OF THE FA
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL KICK EWD
TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN TRACK ACROSS NRN MS AND AL LATE TONIGHT.  IF
THIS VERIFYS...EXPECT INTERACTION WITH STALLING FRONT NEAR THE AREA
TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF TSTMS THRU TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE THEN
PULLS WELL OFF TO THE NE BY 12Z FRI MRNG WITH DECREASING POPS
EXPECTED BY EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE HERE.  MAY
SEE SOME FILTERING IN OF DRIER AIR ON FRI...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE FRONT QUICKLY RIDES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST.  WILL STICK CLOSE TO
PERSISTANCE ON TEMPS THRU TONIGHT...THEN TWEAK NUMBERS DOWN SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDENCE NUMBERS LAST TWO PERIODS.  CHC POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...THEN DROPPING OFF ON FRI.

MARINE...SCA AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTS THRU TODAY.  STRONG SRLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN 6-9 FT SEAS WHILE AFTN HIGH TIDES ONCE AGAIN
THREATEN TO INNUDATE SOME COASTAL ROADWAYS.  EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
SOME DURING THE AFTN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED INTO FRI.

MOB 84/66/82/62 6521  PNS 81/68/79/65 5421
DTS 80/68/78/65 5421  GZH 84/64/82/60 6521 39

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-062200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 AM CDT THU MAY 6 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
ALABAMA COAST...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS ALABAMA EARLY TODAY
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FEED
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EAST MISSISSIPPI.  THE COMBINATION OF THE
FRONT AND THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA...STRONG INSTABILITIES COUPLED WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.  HOWEVER...STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL MAKE ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN PUNCH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST AND WEAKENS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
PREPARED TO ACTIVATE TODAY OR LATER TONIGHT IF SEVERE WEATHER
THREATENS.

RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION AND STAY
TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB.
WWW.NWSMOBILE.NOAA.GOV