Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
213 PM EDT WED JUN 9 1999

TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY LATE.  UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

THU...NGM/ETA MOVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS NORTH FASTER THAN AVN AND SHIFT
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTH OF THE AREA.  SINCE THE FEATURE WILL
BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE THAT MUCH
OF AN IMPACT EVEN IF UPPER AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT MATERIALIZE.  OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST SO
EVEN IF THE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF US...THE MAIN EFFECT WOULD BE THAT
THERE WOULD BE LESS OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THAT HAVE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION RECENTLY. PLANNING ON GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR INTERIOR AND 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST.

FRI...AVN CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BUT OTHER
MODELS WANT TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING AS GULF UPPER LOW FILLS.  ETA/NGM
SHOW MORE SUBSIDENCE THAN AVN OFF TO OUR EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT DO NOT SEE THIS
AFFECTING THE AREA...SO THE RATHER DEEP LAYER OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OUR MOIST REGIME.  WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS
INLAND AND 30 ALONG THE COAST.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...DIGGING TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE FORECAST TO CUT
OFF THEN DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP LAYER
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS AS A RESULT OF DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ON WEST
SIDE OF MID/UPPER LOW.  EXPECT AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS INTERIOR AND
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR COAST MAINLY LATE NIGHT/MORNING.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS...BUOYS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT. RUC SHOWS 15 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
BY 03Z WHILE AVN INCREASES THEM TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT IS IN RESPONSE TO KEEPING LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH TOO CLOSE TO THE AREA.  THEREAFTER...
THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA SHOULD NOT CHANGE
MUCH IN STRENGTH AS BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  HENCE...WILL KEEP THE 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY...
DAB BB 073/086 072/086 073 3433
MCO TB 071/088 072/089 072 2524
MLB BB 074/086 073/086 074 3433

.MLB...NONE.

BORZILLERI/LASCODY