Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEA BREEZE WHICH
GOT A BIT OF A LATE START TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN ANTICIPATED. 15Z CAP SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE 10Z...WITH PWAT OF 1.59 INCHES.
ALOFT...MODERATELY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WITH H5 TEMP NEAR -9C AS
VORT MIN DROPS DOWN THE PENINSULA. APPEARS SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
ANTICYCLONIC VORT LOBE IS DONE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT COLLISION OF SEA BREEZES TO OCCUR OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS...WITH COUNTIES SURROUNDING
METRO ORLANDO BEING MOST VULNERABLE ONCE AGAIN IN OUR FA. MODELS
AGREE ON  BRINGING IN NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PVA INTO NORTH
FL THIS EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND WILL LET SWING
SHIFT DECIDE IF THEY NEED TO BE IN OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DOES NOT PICK UP UNTIL LATE TOMORROW...SO WILL PUT OFF MENTION OF
COASTAL SHOWERS UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.

SAT...HAVE ESSENTIALLY RULED OUT AVN SCENARIO THIS CYCLE DUE TO LACK
OF BELIEVABILITY OF A TIGHT SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP SE OF FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY DUE TO HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC...ALLOWING FASTER INLAND PENETRATION
OF SEA BREEZE. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS MODEL PWATS 1.5
TO 1.7". AS SUCH HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS INLAND. WILL
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT COASTA SHRA AS MEAN SFC-850 FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

SUN AND BEYOND...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDTIONS AREAWIDE AS WHAT I EXPECT
TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH NEARS 77-78W COUPLED WITH PSBLTY OF ATLC
SURFACE HIGH WEDGING A LITTLE BIT DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS/N GEORGIA
(INDICATED BY ETA). ETA/NGM DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE PENINSULA WITH NGM A COUPLE TENTHS DRIER AT 12Z SUN. BOTH MODELS
SHOW GENEROUS SLUG OF MOISTURE POISED TO SURGE ACROSS BOTH SOUTH/
CENTRAL FLORIDA...HOWEVER OVERALL STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE
REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS SPEAKS TO HOW FAR NORTH DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN. ALTHOUGH I'M STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH THIS FEATURE SUN...I EVENTUALLY EXPECT ALL AREAS TO HAVE A
BETTER THAN CLIMO CHANCE FOR DIURNAL AFTERNOON STORMS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...ESP IF IT MOVES MORE WNW THAN W AFTER DAY 3
(A LA THE EURO MODELS).

MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL SUN AT THE EARLIEST.

DAB BB 070/086 074/084 074 60-32
MCO BB 071/090 072/088 073 60332
MLB BB 071/087 075/085 076 60022=

.MLB...NONE.

KELLY/CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-042200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999

...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO FORM AROUND NOON
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND BY 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. AS
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND...IT WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM FORMATION. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY INLAND SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES...WHERE LAKE AND SEA BREEZES WILL
INTERACT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTERIOR. STORM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DONT TAKE CHANCES WHEN
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NEARBY...MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE LOCATION
INDOORS.

AS STORMS BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING MAY AFFECT A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE MOST
FAVORED COASTAL AREAS FOR LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE NEAR MERRITT ISLAND
AND SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET.

KELLY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-042200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999

...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO FORM AROUND NOON
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND BY 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. AS
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND...IT WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM FORMATION. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY INLAND SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES...WHERE LAKE AND SEA BREEZES WILL
INTERACT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT INLAND AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTERIOR. STORM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DONT TAKE CHANCES WHEN
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NEARBY...MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE LOCATION
INDOORS.

AS STORMS BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING MAY AFFECT A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE MOST
FAVORED COASTAL AREAS FOR LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE NEAR MERRITT ISLAND
AND SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET.

KELLY