Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
135 PM EST SUN FEB 28 1999

LINE OF STORMS BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS AFTN AS LAPS DATA
SHOWED SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FNTL
TROF. JET CORE AT BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS BEGUN TO LIFT OUT
ATTM AND SOUTH END OF LINE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.

W/ AIRMASS HAVING A CHC TO MODIFY...TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEW PTS IN THE
LWR 60S...SHRA/TS CHC WL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHUD NOT
EXTEND MUCH S OF MLB. LIMITING INFLUENCE AGAIN BEING RATHER SHALLOW
MOISTURE. 12Z RUC MDL APEARED TO BE RIGHT IN INDICATING A SLIGHTLY
SPLIT JET WHICH EXTENDED FORCING TO OUR NRN MOST CTYS.

CD FNT LOCATED FM JST S OF JAX TO GNV WL PUSH THRU THIS EVE W/ MUCH
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND JET STREAK
SHUD CLEAR SKIES OUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFT TRUE FNTL PASSAGE. WINDS
SHUD REMAIN HIGH ENUF OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT FOG EVEN IN AREAS THAT
GET SOME RA.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL INFLUENCE THE AREAS
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. THE
NORTHERN MOST LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND
INTO THE UPPER PLAINS REGION. REMAINING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TEXAS/LA AND NORTHWEST GULF REGION MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES
MAY SPIN UP A WEAK LOW BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE IT QUICKLY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST AND WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA.  SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FOLLOWS THE WEAK ZONE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGIONS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHEAST US. 500MB TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD
500MB HEIGHTS/RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA KEEPING WEATHER NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...WINDS INCREASING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SEAS
DEVELOPING SLOWLY. THE BUOY 20NM E OF THE CAPE WAS SW 23 KT GUSTING
TO 27 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT. SCA CRITERIA WILL BE MAINTAINED
DURING THE EVENING DEFINITELY FOR WINDS...AND FOR SEAS NEAR THE END
OF THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

TEMP PRELIMS
DAB UU 047/071 050/075 076 67100
MCO UU 045/073 048/077 079 67100
MLB UU 048/072 050/077 079 67200

.MLB...SCA FLAGER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

BLOTTMAN/WIMMER