Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999

SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
PAST HOUR JUST WEST OF NORTHERN CWA. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER WEST
SIDE OF STATE WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG WEST WINDS FROM GULF REACH THE
PENINSULA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTHERN CWA AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST. STEERING FLOW
INDICATES EAST MOTION NEAR 25 MPH. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS TO 30 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES AND REMOVE
AFTERNOON WORDING.

WITH 15 KT WEST FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER AS SHOWN BY SHORT RANGE
MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY KMLB VWP AND CAPE PROFILER...EXPECT EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO HAVE DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
IF BREEZE BOUNDARY CAN FORM ALONG BEACHES LATE...SCATTERED STORMS
MOVING EAST FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BECOME ENHANCED AND A FEW COULD
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE AS MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF
3000 J/KG PLUS FOR SURFACE LIFT. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND DIME HAIL.

MARINE...OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OFFSHORE. NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

.MLB...NONE.

BORZILLERI/SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-142000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1059 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL INHIBIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION.

A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AROUND SANFORD AND
METRO ORLANDO LATE THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE COAST FROM DAYTONA
BEACH TO MELBOURNE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH
OF ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A FAST MOVING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM ORLANDO TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
AND STAY THERE UNTIL STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM YOUR AREA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STORMS WILL AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF MELBOURNE BEGINNING AROUND NOON.
THE MARINE AREA SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WILL EXPERIENCE STORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
BOATERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BEFORE STORMS APPROACH.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-142000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1059 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 1999

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL INHIBIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION.

A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AROUND SANFORD AND
METRO ORLANDO LATE THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE COAST FROM DAYTONA
BEACH TO MELBOURNE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH
OF ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A FAST MOVING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM ORLANDO TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
AND STAY THERE UNTIL STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM YOUR AREA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STORMS WILL AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF MELBOURNE BEGINNING AROUND NOON.
THE MARINE AREA SOUTH OF MELBOURNE WILL EXPERIENCE STORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ROUGH
SEAS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.
BOATERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BEFORE STORMS APPROACH.

CRISTALDI