Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

CURRENTLY...TSTMS STARTING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO EVE HOURS AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE E
COAST. SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTN AND EVE WITH VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS...AND SVR TSTM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR EC FL THROUGH 900 PM. COVERAGE OF STORMS ESPECIALLY
INCREASING AS EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE.

TONIGHT...POPS IN EVE PACKAGE WILL BE TWEAKED LATE AFTN BASED ON
TRENDS BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO EVE HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE EC FL COASTAL WATERS. AFTER
STORMS END JUST SOME LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG FORMING
LATE NIGHT.

LONG TERM/SAT THROUGH MON ...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA/PANHANDLE/GA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYS EITHER OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA OR TO THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO SET UP EACH DAY WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA AND KEEPS
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

DAB BT 068/088 066/089 064 67544
MCO BT 071/089 069/091 065 67444
MLB BT 070/087 069/090 067 67344

.MLB...NONE.

GLITTO/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-072200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
ALONG BOTH COASTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND ONLY REACH
INLAND TO NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE AND COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY. STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...OVER
BOTH LAND AND WATER. A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.

IF SKIES THREATEN...HEAD INDOORS TO SAFETY BEFORE THE STORM REACHES
YOUR LOCATION. IF OUT ON THE INTRACOASTAL OR NEAR SHORE WATERS...
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR APPROACHING STORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE
STORMS REACH YOU. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF
ACTIVATE IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY.

GLITTO

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-072200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
3 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA UNTIL
9PM...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
AT 3 PM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER LAKE
COUNTY. DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT HOWEY IN THE HILLS AT 254 PM.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORM. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS
ALL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER LAKE...VOLUSIA...
ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES THROUGH 4PM THEN OVER OSCEOLA...BREVARD
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 4PM AND 7PM. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WESTERLY STEERING WINDS WILL
PUSH ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY
EARLY EVENING AND OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS. IF SKIES THREATEN...HEAD
INDOORS TO SAFETY BEFORE THE STORM REACHES YOUR LOCATION. IF OUT ON
THE INTRACOASTAL OR NEAR SHORE WATERS... KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
APPROACHING STORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE STORMS REACH YOU. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY BY 430
PM. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE AND PASS
ALONG ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HAGEMEYER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-072200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
3 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA UNTIL
9PM...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
AT 3 PM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER LAKE
COUNTY. DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT HOWEY IN THE HILLS AT 254 PM.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORM. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS
ALL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER LAKE...VOLUSIA...
ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES THROUGH 4PM THEN OVER OSCEOLA...BREVARD
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES BETWEEN 4PM AND 7PM. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WESTERLY STEERING WINDS WILL
PUSH ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY
EARLY EVENING AND OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE EVENING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS. IF SKIES THREATEN...HEAD
INDOORS TO SAFETY BEFORE THE STORM REACHES YOUR LOCATION. IF OUT ON
THE INTRACOASTAL OR NEAR SHORE WATERS... KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
APPROACHING STORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE STORMS REACH YOU. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY BY 430
PM. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE AND PASS
ALONG ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HAGEMEYER