Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
134 PM EDT THU APR 29 1999

CURRENTLY...INFLUENCE OF DEVELOPING ATLC LOW INCREASING ACROSS CWA.
METARS SHOW INCREASING N COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS...ACTUALLY BECOMING
NE ALONG THE N COASTAL AREAS. LOW CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH FL BEHIND THE "BACK DOOR" FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN CWA.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL EXIT OFFSHORE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSHES THROUGH AREA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND INCREASIN 500MB PVA...THERE
SHOULD BE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW SC OR ST DECK OVER THE CWA WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING...NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS IMPLIED BY THE ETA/NGM.

FRI...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR AT 500MB...ALTHOUGH I'VE FOLLOWED THE
ETA/AVN EARLY ON WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY OF THE ATLC SURFACE LOW.
N-NW WINDS TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS LOW GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES
OFFSHORE. WITH 500MB LOW ONLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH...LOW WILL GO
ABSOLUTELY NOWHERE FOR A WHILE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE L-M70S AT
BEST AREA-WIDE WITH BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SOCKING IN AS SECOND VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND 500MB. FAIRLY HEFTY
MODEL POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED...AND COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN
WHAT MOS IS SAYING.

LONG TERM...OMEGA PATTERN WILL INCH ACROSS THE E HALF OF U.S.
THROUGH EXTENDED FCST PD.  DUE TO THE STAGNENT FORWARD MOTION...THE
DEVELOPING SW ATLC LOW WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE ENHANCED BY
SEVERAL JET CORES FROM THE NRN H25 JET STREAM THROUGH 12Z SUN.  AS THE
LOW SQUEEZES WITH THE EWD MOVING OMEGA SYSTEM...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BECOME QUITE PACKED.  H50 VORT LOBES SHOULD BE CLEAR OF FL PEN
BY 00Z SUN AS DRY AIR OVER THE MIDWEST IS PULLED SE INTO THE GULF
REGION.  CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BREAK UP 00Z-12Z SUN...BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.  DRY WX
TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...ALL MODELS INDICATING ONSHORE WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS ON SAT.  ADD A NORTHEAST SWELL AND A FULL MOON
FRI NIGHT...AND THE COASTAL SITUATION LOOKS BLEAK FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER EXTENSIVE COOR WITH KJAX AND KMIA WILL GO WITH HIGHEST SEAS
AND WINDS OVER NRN WATERS...SOMEWHAT LESS OVER SRN WATERS.  WILL
HOLD OFF CFW FOR NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND SHOULD THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS VERIFY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

DAB RE 063/072 062/072 061 81386
MCO RE 064/073 061/074 060 81386
MLB RE 064/076 065/075 062 81386=

.MLB...NONE

CRISTALDI/BRAGAW

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-301000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
715 PM EDT THU APR 29 1999

...COASTAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY...

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL INTENSIFY
INTO A NEAR GALE EAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S TO
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH
SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINLY FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING...AND AROUND
30 KT BY SATURDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ENHANCE THE EFFECTS OF THE
STORM. HIGH TIDES...WHICH OCCUR BETWEEN 8:45 AND 9:45 FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND NIGHT...MAY BE BETWEEN ONE FOOT
AND A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH SEAS AND POUNDING SURF
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING HIGH TIDES.

SINCE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW INTENSE THE STORM WILL
BECOME...MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-301000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
715 PM EDT THU APR 29 1999

...COASTAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY...

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL INTENSIFY
INTO A NEAR GALE EAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S TO
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH
SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINLY FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING...AND AROUND
30 KT BY SATURDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ENHANCE THE EFFECTS OF THE
STORM. HIGH TIDES...WHICH OCCUR BETWEEN 8:45 AND 9:45 FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND NIGHT...MAY BE BETWEEN ONE FOOT
AND A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH SEAS AND POUNDING SURF
MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING HIGH TIDES.

SINCE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW INTENSE THE STORM WILL
BECOME...MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

CRISTALDI