Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 1999

PRECIPITATION GETTING OFF TO A LATE START THIS AFTERNOON WITH BULK
OF CONVECTION YET TO OCCUR. SEA BREEZE MERGER OVER CENTRAL FL
WILL SIGNAL A FEW STRONG STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR OVER THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE ASHORE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE ...CLEARING COASTAL COUNTIES SOUTH OF VOLUSIA
FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THE REST OF TODAY.

TONIGHT...SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE BROADENS. AFTER DISSIPATION OF EVENING
DEBRIS CLOUDS...OVERALL HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.
POCKETS OF GROUND FOG LIKELY AGAIN BY SUNRISE AS WINDS AREA WIDE
DROP TO NEAR CALM BY MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
NORTHWARD...REACHING S GA THURSDAY. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND BROAD
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN GENERAL SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
THUS...BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE
INLAND. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW GREATEST INLAND
PENETRATION BY WEST COAST BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS NORTH
OF MCO-TTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCH
UPWARD...EXPECT LESS CONVERGENCE BETWEEN BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAN
RECENT DAYS AND THUS ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS. DEEPENING
E/SE FLOW WILL RETURN THU. EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS ALTHOUGH DISTRIBUTION WILL FAVOR INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON THEN AFFECTING TBW CWA BY SUNSET. TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WILL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...DEEP
E/SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LACK OF PRONOUCED MOISTURE SOURCES/DISTURBANCES
UPSTREAM OVER ATLANTIC/CARRIB SHOULD HOLD PRECIP CHANCES NEAR/BELOW
CLIMO. GIVEN FLOW REGIME...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. DONT EXPECT GRADIENT FLOW TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT NOCTURAL RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WITH PM SEA BREEZES...TRANSITION TO E/SE FLOW WILL OCCUR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PENINSULA MAY AFFECT NEAR SHORE WATERS
N OF MLB THROUGH MID EVENING TONIGHT.

DAB TB 074/090 073/090 073 65353
MCO TB 072/092 073/092 072 65353
MLB BB 071/090 074/089 075 65143

.MLB...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/SPRATT