Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 12 1999

E TO W FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE STATES WAS SINKING SLOWLY SWD. WLY
WINDS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WERE INCREASING OVER N FL...INHIBITING
ECSB DEVELOPMENT FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY NORTH...HOWEVER THE ACTIVE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS ALREADY CROSSING INTO LAKE COUNTY.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WITH A MERGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL FL. RANDOM SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ORLANDO AND THE CAPE
SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVES
INLAND.

TONIGHT...EWD MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE CAPE N AS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH
NIGHTFALL. RIDGE AXIS SINKS A LITTLE SOUTH WITH LIGHT WIND AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SINK TO SOUTHERNMOST CWA. SQUEEZE PLAY WILL BE ON AS
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH STALL OVER THE SE STATES
AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CROSSES EXTREME S FL WED. BOTH DISTURBANCES
WILL TEND TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE PENINSULA...WITH
DEEPEST MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD. WESTERLY
STEERING REGIME...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL FAVOR INLAND CONVECTION DURING
AFTERNOON AND EAST COAST CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY. WILL INDICATE
50/40 POPS N/S TUE AND 50 ALL AREAS WED. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
NEAR CLIMO INLAND AND A CATEGORY ABOVE ALONG COAST.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...BROAD RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED N OF
CWA...ALLOWING RETURN TO DEEP E/SE FLOW OVER ENTIRE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
NOCTURNAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE EARLIER TREND
OF MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS EAST SIDE...AND AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION INTERIOR. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE S/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
FORMATION OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DAB BB 072/090 072/090 072 65353
MCO BB 074/093 073/092 073 65253
MLB BB 072/090 072/089 072 65253

.MLB...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-121800-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 12 1999

...A FEW STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY NOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT MAINLY
FROM JUPITER TO NEAR MELBOURNE.  THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE FROM INTERIOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO SEMINOLE AND ORANGE
COUNTY.

FROM ORLANDO NORTH...DEVELOPING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...ALLOWING
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALSO...THE STRONGER
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO
45 MPH AND UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN.  MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN
OF THREATENING SKIES...SINCE LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE RAINFALL AREA.

MARINE...A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-121800-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 12 1999

...A FEW STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY NOON WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT MAINLY
FROM JUPITER TO NEAR MELBOURNE.  THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE FROM INTERIOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO SEMINOLE AND ORANGE
COUNTY.

FROM ORLANDO NORTH...DEVELOPING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...ALLOWING
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALSO...THE STRONGER
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO
45 MPH AND UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN.  MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN
OF THREATENING SKIES...SINCE LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE RAINFALL AREA.

MARINE...A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PENDERGRAST