Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU AUG 5 1999

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTH FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME AREAS ALONG COASTAL BREVARD HAD ALREADY SEEN PERIODS OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INITIATED SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
EVENING....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE GONE 50 POPS FOR THIS
EVENING MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 30 ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHERE ACTIVITY
WILL END EARLIER. SKY COVER WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS
DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISH. WET GROUND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESP INVOF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST.

FRI...HAVE FAVORED THE ETA TOMORROW SINCE CURRENT FEELING IS THE
AVN IS OVERDONE WITH THE GOMEX SURFACE LOW AND THUS A LITTLE TOO
HIGH WITH SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ECFL. SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVER NORTH FL BY 12Z FRI. HIGH
PWAT AIR AOA 2.0 WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY ACCORDING TO ALL
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WILL THE WEAKENING H50 SHEAR AXIS.
THIS LEADS ME TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
WIND FLOW NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY...MAYBE A SHADE MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT. STILL...THE SURFACE TO STERRING LEVEL FLOW...
WHAT LITTLE THERE IS...WILL BE LIGHT SW.

SAT...SLIGHT DRYING WORKING ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INDICATED ON
THE NGM/AVN...BUT NOT THE ETA. THIS SEEMS COUNTERINTUITIVE AS TO
WHAT I WOULD EXPECT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO NEAR LATITIUDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY...
10% LOWER NEAR LAKE OKEE. WE WILL SEE IF THIS DRYING COMES TO
FRUITION. SHORT RANGE MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.

EXTENDED....NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER YESTERDAYS THOUGHTS. RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEAR 27N MOST OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS EXPENDING NORTH BY DAY
5. WEAK S-SW FLOW...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR A WEAK SE COMPONENT OVER
SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES ON DAY 5.

MARINE...HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS PER ETA GUIDANCE. NOTHING MORE
THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED ATTM.

CCF NUMEBRS...
DAB TB 072/090 074/091 074 605634
MCO TB 073/091 075/092 075 605634
MLB TB 073/091 075/092 075 605634

.MLB...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/CRISTALDI

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-052000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 5 1999

...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS
INITIATED EARLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION INTO THE EVENING.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE FARTHEST INLAND OVER VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO FORM SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL DUE TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES...CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES.

THESE STORMS CAN CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHEN MOVING THROUGH WATER COVERED ROADS
TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG STORMS.
DO NOT TAKE CHANCES WITH LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY...IT CAN STRIKE 6
WELL AWAY FROM A STORM.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY...HOWEVER EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER PLANNING
AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSELY.

PENDERGRAST