Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
344 AM CST WED MAR 17 1999

08Z SFC MAP INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE SATELLITE ATTM INDICATING UPPER LOW
SPINNING ALONG MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN PLAYERS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SO FAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
HAS BEEN SHALLOW JUDGING BY MEAGER 85H DEW POINTS 00Z WED. MODELS
INDICATING BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST OF
MAF CWA AHEAD OF DRY LINE ON EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES AND COLD FRONT
NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING...SO BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE IN SCURRY COUNTY LATE TODAY NEAR DRY LINE
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP TO AT LEAST BREEZY CATEGORY NORTHERN COUNTIES. SOME
MOISTURE DOES TRY TO WRAP AROUND SFC LOW ONCE FRONT DOES PASS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES SO DID MENTION CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN NORTHWARD INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF TSRA TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
COUNTIES CLOSER TO UPPER LOW.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH STRONG CAA AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THIS PERIOD. MENTIONED CHANCE
OF SHRA WITH UPPER LOW AGAIN ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN NORTH. WAS NOT
CRAZY ABOUT CONVECTION CHANCES THURSDAY WITH SUCH STRONG CAA AND LOW
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE.

MAF 070/037/047/030 -22
CNM 066/035/049/030 222
MRF 065/032/047/026 011
P07 075/046/060/036 220

12

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-058>063-067>070-075-081-082-181130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
325 PM CST (225 PM MST) WED MAR 17 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND  SCURRY  WINKLER
BORDEN     ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS    TERRELL CULBERSON
BREWSTER   GAINES     LOVING      REAGAN   UPTON
CRANE      GLASSCOCK  MARTIN      REEVES   WARD

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY  LEA

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE
MEXICO/ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE A DRY LINE WILL FORM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND TERRELL COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE AND FRONT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SPREADING
SOUTHEAST.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
CENTERED JUST WEST OF EL PASO BY THIS EVENING...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF NON-SEVERE MULTI-CELLED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
OF WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
TERRELL AND SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTIES.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING IN THESE TWO COUNTIES.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

JD/EGB

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-180600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
658 PM CST (558 PM MST) WED MAR 17 1999

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...ANDREWS...DAWSON...BORDEN...HOWARD...SCURRY...
GLASSCOCK...REAGAN...TERRELL...CRANE...MIDLAND...ECTOR...PECOS...
UPTON...MARTIN...AND WINKLER COUNTIES.