Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
345 PM CDT THU JUN 10 1999

SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
WITH CONVECTION IMMINENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE ABILENE AREA NORTHWEST TO AROUND LUBBOCK.  SPC HAS PULLED
TRIGGERS ON WATCHES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...
PLEASE REFER TO WATCH STATUS MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE
INFO.  SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL DESPITE HIGH WBZ'S.
IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT ARGUE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT BECAUSE THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP VALUES
ARE LOW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT AT THIS TIME.
PER LBB'S REQUEST...SCURRY COUNTY WILL BE FOLDED INTO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE 430 PM ZONE ISSUANCE.

PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED BY GOOD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW...A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AN APPROACHING
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  INDEED...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK PUNCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO.  SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...
THE KEY TO THE LATTER PERIODS WILL BE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET
UP.  AGAIN...GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF THESE
BOUNDARIES...A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
REASONABLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.  GUIDANCE EXTREMA LOOK
ACCEPTABLE WITH MINOR REVISIONS AT THIS END.

REAL LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THAT'S A WRAP...LBB WZIS...ABQ SHORTLY...AND BOX SCORES FOLLOW...70.

MAF 69/88/68/88 5332
CNM 68/92/67/92 2222
MRF 62/89/60/88 3333
P07 70/92/70/90 4333

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-120500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1205 PM CDT (1105 AM MDT) FRI JUN 11 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:
ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:
EDDY      LEA

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE PRIMARY
RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
ALPINE LINE.

SYNOPSIS:
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FOCUS WILL BE A STRONG OUTLFOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A THIRD FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  IN ADDITION THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAST INTO
THE NIGHT.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK...PLEASE SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT
(WWUS35 KSJT).

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