Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
135 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999

WK PAC FNT DRAPED NE/SW OVER NM THIS AFTN WHILE DRYLINE EXTENDS FM
E OF MAF-FST INTO BIG BEND.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS H5 LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS WITH PERTURBATIONS EJECTING NEWD AHD OF IT.  AS MAIN H5
SHRTWV PASSES NEWD...TRAILING SHEARED VORTICITY MOVES INTO W TX/SE NM
TNGT...THEN LINGERS ACRS AREA SUN/MON.

TSRA THAT FIRED EARLIER ALG THETA E AXIS MOVED OUT OF CWA EARLY THIS
AFTN.  DRYLINE LOOKS TO STALL E MAF-FST THRU BIG BEND BY EARLY
EVNG.  ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ALG AND E FOR POSSIBLE
TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.  XPC WINDS TO BACK NR SFC AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVE DRYLINE WWD TNGT ROUGHLY TO TX/NM STATELINE.  AS UPPER
DYNAMICS /COOLER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE IN FM WEST THINK TSRA COULD FIRE UP
IN CONVERGENT ZONE ALG BACKING DRYLINE AND PAC FNT.  LOOKS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE...1000-2000 J/KG...ALG AND EAST OF
THIS AREA TNGT IN DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  H5 AND H7 WINDS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN DURG EVNG THO...POSSIBLY CUTTING DOWN ON SEVERE CHC.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES REMAIN ACRS MUCH CWA SUNDAY WHILE HIGH CLDS APPEAR TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD.  WITH GOOD HEATING SUN/MON WILL INCLUDE CHC TSRA
DURG LATE AFTN/EVNG MAINLY IN ERN ZNS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL THRU MOST OF PD WITH MSTR MOVG BACK THRU
AREA EACH NIGHT AND BEING PUSHED EAST DURG DAY.  WILL GO ABV TNGT...
AND SUN NGT AND COMPROMISE ON DAYTIME READINGS.

IN THE EXTENDED...SERIES OF H5 SHRTWVS CONT TO DROP SEWD THRU PAC NW
WITH EACH PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. THIS SHUD GIVE AREA
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC TSRA AFTN/EVNG TUE WITH MSTR AVAILABLE AND
DAYTIME HEATING.  WOULD THINK CHC DECREASES AT LEAST EAST OF MTNS AS
BETTER DYNAMICS MIGRATE NWD.

MAF 70/92/71/93 3/2/2/2
CNM 61/97/68/99 0/0/0/1
MRF 51/87/55/91 0/0/0/1
P07 71/89/72/91 2/2/1/2

AKL

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