Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
315 AM CDT MON AUG 2 1999

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN US THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL LOW THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE PAST 1-2 DAYS WILL MOVE NWD OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...INTO THE NRN
PANHANDLE REGION BY TONIGHT. HARD TO MAKE OUT THE CENTER OF THIS
CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER NW OF LAMESA...MOVING
SLOWLY NWD. OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN HAS BEEN THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
PERMIAN BASIN LAST NIGHT. WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS. IN ANY EVENT...THIS BOUNDARY AND
ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AM NOT TO EXCITED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
THE UPPER TROPICAL LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...WILL NOT GO TOO
HIGH ON POPS. IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
LOCATIONS AND INTERACTIONS OF THE MULTIPLE SFC BOUNDARIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SO WILL BROAD BRUSH SCT POPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY...AS PER THE EXISTING FORECASTS. SLOW MOVING STORMS
THAT FORM TODAY MAY PRESENT A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN SOME AREAS...
BUT AT THIS TIME I FEEL THESE PROBLEM AREAS WOULD TEND TO BE MORE
LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS
TIME.

WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA A BIT MORE MOIST AND RAIN-COOLED
THIS MORNING...AND WITH ALL OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AROUND...LOWER
MAX TEMPS WOULD SEEM TO BE IN ORDER FOR TODAY. EXISTING FORECASTS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET IN THIS RESPECT...SO WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE
IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE LEVELS. FOR TONIGHT...WILL STICK FAIRLY
CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH THE NOTION THAT DYING CONVECTION
WILL LINGER AROUND THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW...NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL LOW WHICH GETS
FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS
DEFINITION. I WOULD EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE OLD SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PLAY A ROLE AGAIN AS FOCUSING POINTS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WAVE IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF...SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS WAVE EASTERLY INTO THE AREA AT VARYING RATES OF
SPEED...FOR THE MOST PART SOMETIME IN THE WED-THU TIMEFRAME. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY MIDWEEK. DJK

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  90/67/90    332
LSA  90/66/90    432
E41  90/68/91    332
6R6  93/69/93    222
MRF  84/61/85    222
CNM  93/67/92    332

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-030500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
547 AM CDT (447 AM MDT) MON AUG 2 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HELPED TO
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT... AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TODAY... SO ITS CONTRIBUTION TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.  HOWEVER... AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE... AFTERNOON HEATING AND LIFT
PROVIDED FROM NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN.  THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED... AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

72

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
803 AM CDT MON AUG 2 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   STATE...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    12 NW GAIL                TX   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/99   BORDEN                         2-3 TREE LIMBS DOWNED BY
                                          THUNDERSTORM WINDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
803 AM CDT MON AUG 2 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   STATE...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    12 NW GAIL                TX   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/99   BORDEN                         2-3 TREE LIMBS DOWNED BY
                                          THUNDERSTORM WINDS