Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
300 PM CDT (200 PM MDT) WED JUL 14 1999

KMAF 88D/SAT IMAGERY SHOW AFTERNOON HEAT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN S CWA SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  EXPECT THIS
SCENARIO TO REPEAT ITSELF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS PERSISTENCE SEEMS
TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL LOW NOW JUST N OF THE US/BC BORDER MOVG
SLOWLY E-SE.  ALL MODELS INITIALIZED IN SYNCH ON THIS FEATURE...BUT
JUST A BIT TOO FAR S.  AT ANY RATE...LOW INDUCING LEE SIDE SFC LOW
OVER MT EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE BIG BEND.  LLJ TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AS A RESULT...AND BELIEVE THIS WILL MIX DOWN THU FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVR THE PB AND PANHANDLE.

TROF FCST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU FCST PD.  EXPECT MORE OF THE
SAME EACH DAY...ESP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN MOIST SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
CAN/T RULE OUT REST OF CWA EITHER...AS W/MODELS FCSTING AMS TO
REMAIN UNSTABLE AND RANDOM VORT MAX/S TO SPIN OFF LOW AND MOVE THRU
W TX.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC FOR THOSE AREAS.  AS FAR AS TEMPS
GO...THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND CLOUD COVER TO VARY LITTLE OVER
48 HRS...AND GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL.  WZIS.

*******************************************************************
*                                                                 *
*  THE FOLLOWING SITES WILL BE USED HENCEFORTH FOR COORDINATION   *
*  PURPOSES  BETWEEN NWS OFFICES.  THIS DECODING OF THE 3-LETTER  *
*  IDENTIFIERS WILL BE AVAILABLE UNTIL JULY 15.                   *
*                                                                 *
*  MAF  MIDLAND INTL                                              *
*  LSA  LAMESA                                                    *
*  E41  BIG LAKE                                                  *
*  6R6  TERRELL CO. AIRPORT (6E DRYDEN)                           *
*  CNM  CARLSBAD                                                  *
*  MRF  MARFA                                                     *
*                                                                 *
*******************************************************************

MAF  70/92/71/92  3222
LSA  71/91/72/91  3222
E41  72/90/73/90  3222
6R6  73/89/74/89  4333
CNM  70/95/70/95  3222
MRF  63/81/63/83  4333

44

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-150000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1045 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECT BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND DRAWS IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

70

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-150000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1045 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECT BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND DRAWS IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.

70